Table 3 Univariate Cox regression model showing risk factors associated with incident MDR-TB in the training and validation sets (N = 1836).

From: Nomogram for individualized prediction of incident multidrug-resistant tuberculosis after completing pulmonary tuberculosis treatment

Variables

Training set (n = 1719)*

Validation set (n = 117)*

No

HR (95% CI)

P value

No

HR (95% CI)

P value

Sociodemographic characteristics

Age (years)

 < 60

1,108

1.90 (1.57–2.31)

< 0.001

69

2.74 (1.26–6.00)

0.011

 ≥ 60

611

Reference

 

48

Reference

 

Gender

 Male

1,216

1.18 (0.85–1.42)

0.083

88

1.40 (0.64–3.06)

0.399

 Female

503

Reference

 

29

Reference

 

Nationality

 Han

1,700

1.03 (0.46–2.31)

0.940

114

0.98 (0.13–7.17)

0.986

 National minority

19

Reference

 

3

Reference

 

A history of direct contact

 Yes

225

3.25 (2.96–3.56)

< 0.001

26

3.56 (2.38–5.33)

< 0.001

 Unknown

272

1.18 (0.76–1.84)

0.231

20

0.99 (0.46–1.69)

0.213

 No

1,222

Reference

 

71

Reference

 

Family income

 Low-income level

558

1.33 (1.13–1.58)

0.001

49

1.42 (0.76–2.68)

0.275

 Middle level and above

1,161

Reference

 

68

Reference

 

Occupational risk

 High-risk

362

1.51 (1.26–1.80)

< 0.001

33

2.22 (1.18–4.18)

0.013

 Non-high-risk

1,357

Reference

 

84

Reference

 

Education levels

 High school and below

1,270

1.26 (1.04–1.54)

0.022

87

1.44 (0.69–3.15)

0.359

 Universities and higher

449

Reference

 

30

Reference

 

Residences

 Rural areas

554

1.32 (1.12–1.57)

0.001

36

1.45 (0.76–2.76)

0.265

 Urban areas

1,165

Reference

 

81

Reference

 

Registered household on individuals with CPTBT

 Migrants

768

1.13 (0.88–1.34)

0.143

50

1.29 (0.68–2.45)

0.445

 Inhabitants

951

Reference

 

67

Reference

 

Clinical characteristics

Mode of TB case finding

 Passive

418

2.76 1.59–4.78)

< 0.001

35

2.13 (1.12–4.05)

0.022

 Active

1,301

Reference

 

82

Reference

 

Associated with TB at other sites

 Yes

96

1.09 (0.74–1.61)

0.663

7

0.41 (0.06–3.02)

0.383

 No

1,623

Reference

 

110

Reference

 

Comorbidities

 Yes

128

0.80 (0.54–1.16)

0.240

15

0.93 (0.33–2.64)

0.892

 No

1,591

Reference

 

102

Reference

 

HIV infection

 Positive

56

3.96 (2.97–5.26)

< 0.001

9

2.96 (1.16–7.61)

0.024

 Negative

1,663

Reference

 

108

Reference

 

Patients with severe infection

 Yes

124

1.07 (0.80–1.45)

0.660

8

1.20 (0.37–3.91)

0.763

 No

1,595

Reference

 

109

Reference

 

Mode of TB case management

 FMSM

236

1.16 (0.93–1.44)

0.197

14

1.19 (0.49–2.89)

0.700

 CDM

1,483

Reference

 

103

Reference

 

Different individuals with CPTBT

 CRT

308

1.67 (1.38–2.02)

< 0.001

43

3.66 (1.86–7.21)

< 0.001

 CNDT

1,411

Reference

 

74

Reference

 

Outcomes of previous TB treatment

 Unsuccessful treatment

257

5.14 (4.33–6.11)

< 0.001

21

5.37 (2.54–11.34)

< 0.001

 Successful treatment

1,462

Reference

 

96

Reference

 

 PTB treatment time (days)

1,719

0.99 (0.99–1.00)

0.130

117

1.05 (1.02–2.01)

0.015

 TIOFMV (days)

1,586

1.01 (1.00–1.02)

0.025

108

0.99 (0.98–1.01)

0.162

 TIOLC (days)

1,719

0.99 (0.99–1.00)

0.945

117

0.99 (0.98–1.01)

0.100

TRs from individuals with CPTBT

 2H3R3Z3/4H3R3

13

0.67 (0.32–1.43)

0.304

11

0.72 (0.22–2.36)

0.592

 2H3R3Z3E3/4H3R3

93

0.82 (0.62–1.10)

0.185

6

0.74 (0.22–2.57)

0.640

 2HREZ/4H3R3

21

0.85 (0.40–1.79)

0.611

7

0.97 (0.23–4.03)

0.963

 2HRZE/4HR

676

0.87 (0.73–1.04)

0.114

40

1.03 (0.97–2.02)

0.596

 FDC-2HRZE/4HR

91

0.57 (0.36–0.93)

0.025

6

0.73 (0.17–3.11)

0.674

 2HRZES/6HRE

53

1.64 (1.12–2.40)

0.011

5

0.48 (0.07–3.51)

0.469

 3HRZE/6HRE

83

1.25 (0.89–1.77)

0.196

8

1.84 (0.65–5.21)

0.251

 3HRZES/6HRE

43

4.79 (2.47–9.29)

< 0.001

14

2.44 (1.11–5.37)

0.027

 2H3R3Z3E3S3/6H3R3E3

15

1.00 (0.53–1.87)

0.988

12

1.23 (0.43–3.47)

0.699

 Individualized TRs

631

1.11 (0.93–1.33)

0.266

8

1.39 (0.71–2.75)

0.334

Chest imaging

Excellent FCXE

220

0.90 (0.85–0.96)

0.001

22

1.01 (0.83–1.23)

0.911

Moderate FCXE

1,267

1.19 (0.65–2.94)

0.324

71

1.82 (0.54–2.31)

0.365

Poor FCXE

232

2.03 (0.82–3.25)

0.216

14

2.31 (0.44–3.21)

0.568

DPC (months)

706

1.21 (1.14–1.28)

< 0.001

38

1.53 (1.15–2.04)

0.004

Duration of miliary tubercles (months)

15

1.08 (0.54–2.15)

0.836

7

0.77 (0.19–3.21)

0.720

DAF (months)

1,692

1.15 (1.09–1.21)

< 0.001

109

0.98 (0.78–1.23)

0.852

Duration without findings (months)

27

0.81 (0.53–1.25)

0.337

8

0.72 (0.28–1.84)

0.492

Microbiological characteristics

FSC

1,350

0.88 (0.83–0.93)

< 0.001

94

0.77 (0.60–1.00)

0.050

DPSC (months)

954

1.14 (1.04–1.24)

0.004

66

0.99 (0.64–1.54)

0.968

DNSC (months)

396

0.77 (0.69–0.86)

< 0.001

28

0.46 (0.22–0.97)

0.042

DWSC (months)

369

0.92 (0.79–1.06)

0.249

23

1.01 (0.33–3.11)

0.983

FSS

1,699

1.05 (0.95–1.18)

0.434

115

0.94 (0.87–1.02)

0.121

DPSS (months)

607

1.02 (0.98–1.06)

0.405

34

1.05 (0.86–1.28)

0.628

DNSS (months)

1,092

0.98 (0.81–1.20)

0.880

81

0.89 (0.80–0.99)

0.030

DWSS (months)

20

0.62 (0.32–1.21)

0.161

2

0.83 (0.09–7.71)

0.869

  1. Data are shown as No., hazard ratio (95% CI), and P value.
  2. MDR-TB: multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; TB: tuberculosis; PTB: pulmonary tuberculosis; CPTBT: completing pulmonary TB treatment; CNDT: completing newly diagnosed pulmonary TB treatment; CRT: completing re-treated pulmonary TB treatment; HIV: human immunodeficiency virus; HR: hazard ratio; TRs: treatment regimens; FDC: fixed-dose combination; H: isoniazid; R: rifampicin; Z: pyrazinamide; E: ethambutol; S: streptomycin; CI: confidence interval; FMSM: family members' management or self-management; CDM: community doctor management; TIOLC: time from illness onset to laboratory confirmation; MCF: mode of TB case finding; TIOFMV: time from illness onset to the first medical visit; FCXE: frequencies of chest X-ray examination; DPC: duration of pulmonary cavities; DAF: duration of abnormal X-ray findings; FSC: frequencies of sputum culture; DPSC: duration of positive sputum culture; DNSC: duration of negative sputum culture; DWSC: duration without sputum culture; FSS: frequencies of sputum smear; DPSS: duration of positive sputum smear; DNSS: duration of negative sputum smear; DWSS: duration without sputum smear.
  3. *Bold values are those that reach statistical significance (P < 0.05).
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