Table 2 Central tendency for the number of infected farms, maximum spread distance and economic cost for outbreaks originating in regions in England and Wales using movement and temperature data from 2006 and 2013.
From: Bayesian optimisation of restriction zones for bluetongue control
Policy | Train year | Test year | Infected farms (–) | Spread distance (km) | Economic cost (\(10^6\)) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NMIZ | – | 2006 | \(1604_{-186}^{+161}\) | \(35.78_{-0.71}^{+1.27}\) | \(10.55_{-0.49}^{+0.62}\) |
2013 | \(714_{-109}^{+106}\) | \(29.23_{-1.51}^{+2.49}\) | \(8.96_{-0.60}^{+0.46}\) | ||
MIZ | – | 2006 | \(1721_{-214}^{+189}\) | \(50.21_{-2.11}^{+3.19}\) | \(11.06_{-0.50}^{+0.91}\) |
2013 | \(744_{-110}^{+113}\) | \(39.79_{-3.77}^{+2.27}\) | \(9.27_{-0.45}^{+0.78}\) | ||
OPT | 2006 | 2006 | \(1598_{-188}^{+175}\) | \(35.74_{-1.02}^{+1.20}\) | \(1.34_{-0.15}^{+0.07}\) |
2013 | \(717_{-93}^{+116}\) | \(30.08_{-1.52}^{+1.59}\) | \(0.81_{-0.09}^{+0.09}\) | ||
2013 | 2006 | \(1630_{-215}^{+176}\) | \(37.09_{-1.73}^{+1.01}\) | \(0.80_{-0.09}^{+0.06}\) | |
2013 | \(723_{-107}^{+97}\) | \(29.73_{-1.79}^{+2.16}\) | \(0.52_{-0.06}^{+0.05}\) |
