Table 5 Central tendency for the number of infected farms and maximum spread distance for 7 regions in the UK using \(J^\text {NI}\)-optimised control radii for a 2-zone containment policy.

From: Bayesian optimisation of restriction zones for bluetongue control

Region

\(r_\text {CZ}\) (km)

\(r_\text {PZ}\) (km)

Infected farms (–)

Spread distance (km)

Cheshire

4.34

18.47

\(1174_{-188}^{+125}\)

\(45.51_{-12.24}^{+24.36}\)

East Sussex

5.01

85.83

\(1113_{-70}^{+58}\)

\(31.32_{-0.77}^{+1.40}\)

Hampshire

6.72

56.59

\(556_{-67}^{+43}\)

\(28.06_{-0.73}^{+2.05}\)

Norfolk

5.82

16.74

\(248_{-50}^{+47}\)

\(24.16_{-0.91}^{+1.67}\)

Somerset

3.44

11.02

\(2480_{-279}^{+148}\)

\(45.69_{-7.06}^{+12.80}\)

Dyfed

3.34

11.48

\(1195_{-137}^{+161}\)

\(38.03_{-7.27}^{+11.68}\)

Cumbria

7.93

74.79

\(307_{-91}^{+109}\)

\(27.51_{-4.79}^{+21.39}\)

  1. These radii were derived from movement and temperature data from 2013; quoted below. Each test simulation was then also run using movement and temperature data from 2013, with the first infection being introduced on day 121 of 365. Estimates are given by the median of 250 samples and are quoted with the 95% confidence interval derived from bootstrapping.