Table 7 Central tendency for the number of infected farms and maximum spread distance for 7 regions in the UK.

From: Bayesian optimisation of restriction zones for bluetongue control

Region

\(r_\text {CZ}\) (km)

\(r_\text {PZ}\) (km)

Infected farms (–)

Spread distance (km)

Cheshire

4.59

18.04

\(1174_{-182}^{+115}\)

\(45.51_{-12.24}^{+24.36}\)

East Sussex

4.31

11.95

\(1106_{-57}^{+67}\)

\(31.21_{-0.75}^{+1.61}\)

Hampshire

9.84

51.12

\(557_{-68}^{+39}\)

\(28.96_{-1.11}^{+1.23}\)

Norfolk

4.03

23.84

\(248_{-48}^{+50}\)

\(24.32_{-0.98}^{+2.02}\)

Somerset

5.59

19.17

\(2488_{-245}^{+172}\)

\(45.17_{-8.02}^{+13.07}\)

Dyfed

2.80

13.11

\(1193_{-135}^{+160}\)

\(37.41_{-5.36}^{+12.60}\)

Cumbria

5.90

14.94

\(307_{-91}^{+109}\)

\(26.85_{-3.82}^{+13.74}\)

  1. Each simulation was run using movement and temperature data from 2013 with radii derived from data collected in 2006. The first infection was introduced on day 121 of 365 in each case. Estimates are given by the median of 250 samples and are quoted with the 95% confidence interval derived from bootstrapping.