Figure 3

Blood RNA expression of 250 genes predicts time since active TB exposure in humans. (A) ROC curves for prediction of time since first known IGRA + (0 vs. 6 months) in South African adolescents who acquire M.tb infection for tenfold cross-validation in the training set (blue curve; n = 17 0 month samples, n = 21 6 month samples) and final model prediction on the test set (red curve; n = 10 0 month, n = 9 6 month) using Regularized Logistic Regression. (B) ROC curves for Regularized Logistic Regression prediction of time since active TB exposure (baseline vs. 6 months post-enrollment) in GC6-74 Gambia and Ethiopia test set (n = 37 baseline samples, n = 31 6 months samples) using expression of genes from published signatures that predict prospective risk of active TB. (C) ROC curves for Regularized Logistic Regression prediction of time since active TB exposure for tenfold cross-validation on the Gambia and Ethiopia training set (blue curve; n = 67 baseline, n = 48 6 months) and for final model prediction (contains 250 genes) on the Gambia and Ethiopia test set (red curve; n = 37 baseline, n = 31 6 months). (D) ROC curves for prediction of prospective risk of TB for tenfold cross-validation on the Gambia and Ethiopia training set (blue curve; n = 67 baseline, n = 48 6 months) and for final model prediction on the test set (red curve; n = 37 baseline, n = 31 6 months) using the 250-gene set that predicted time since active TB exposure. P values for all ROC curves are from Wilcoxon test, and 95% confidence intervals are shown.