Figure 3

The (a) first and (b) second modes of variation (solid lines) based on mean function \(\mu\) and first and second eigenfunctions \(\phi _1, \phi _2\), respectively, for the total cases process. The sample standard deviations of the first and second FPC scores are \(\sigma _1=5.77\) and \(\sigma _2=1.96\) respectively. The dashed lines depict fitted trajectories for select countries which are extreme in either mode and Poland which exhibits a trajectory close to the mean function.