Figure 1

Pairwise transmission probability. The pairwise transmission probability (y-axes) for each host pair versus the SNP distance (x-axis). To calculate the probability we used the following parameters distributions: substitution rate (μ), beta-PERT (0.1, 0.31, 0.94 base pair × genome × year); latency period (1/σ) beta-PERT (116, 348, 827.5 days); contact rate (β) ∈ uniform (0, 0.1) × contact × year.