Figure 4

Mosaic model vs AR(1) for Bangkok at t + 1, t + 3, and t + 6 forecasting horizons. We show the predictions for a simple mosaic model at t + 1, t + 3, and t + 6 forecasting horizons for Bangkok in blue. For comparison, we show predictions from an AR(1) in red and observed cases in grey bars. Under each bar, we indicate the base model selected by the mosaic ensemble using a winter-takes-all approach based on the previous three out-of-sample prediction months. The t + 6 forecasting horizon presented a significant challenge for all models, but the mosaic model adapted more quickly and did not over-predict relative to the AR(1).