Figure 4

HAM Model—Bayesian (mixed-effects) conditional process analysis of HA. The interplay between Venue, Team Performance, Referees’ Decisions, and Outcome (the circular shape denotes latent variables—with the individual variables listed within the boxes). Lines with single-end arrows indicate the direction of influence. The numbers on the line are path model coefficients. The pre-Covid path coefficients are in blue, the post-Covid coefficients are in red, while their differences, indicated also by Δ, are in black. The statistically significant coefficients (95% credible intervals do not encompass 0) are indicated with *. The difference between the pre- and post-Covid path coefficients, delta (∆), is indicated above the individual coefficients (* when 95% credible intervals do not encompass 0 and ns when they do). The indirect influence of Venue on Outcome through Team Performance and Referees’ Decisions is formally tested in a mediation model (upper left box). The indirect influence of Venue on Referees’ Decision through Team Performance is also formally tested by mediation (lower left box). R² is Bayesian full model coefficient of determination, which includes both fixed (COVID, Venue, Referees’ Decisions, Team Performance, Importance, and Rating) and random (league and team) effects. The control variables, Rating and Importance, were not presented here for the sake of conciseness (see SI, Section 4.1).