Table 3 Prognostic power of the 6-mRNA signature classifier and comparator scores and markers in the independent prospective COVID-19 cohort. Shown are AUROCs for non-missing data, plus 95% CI. The fourth column is a ‘fair’ assessment of the 6-mRNA signature classifier, i.e. the performance on the subset of patients that was available to the comparator.
Comparator marker | Number available | Comparator AUROC | 6-mRNA classifier AUROC | P value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
(a) Prognostic power for predicting severe respiratory failure. Bold font indicates predictor with higher AUROC, which in nearly all cases is the 6-mRNA classifier. The P value column corresponds to DeLong test for difference between paired ROC curves | ||||
6-mRNA classifier | 97 | 0.89 (0.82–0.95) | ||
SOFA | 96 | 0.93 | 0.89 | 0.31 |
APACHE II | 93 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.19 |
Age | 96 | 0.78 | 0.89 | 0.07 |
PCT | 76 | 0.80 | 0.89 | 0.07 |
CRP | 97 | 0.86 | 0.89 | 0.58 |
Lactate | 45 | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.52 |
IL-6 | 97 | 0.73 | 0.89 | < 1e−3 |
suPAR | 97 | 0.79 | 0.89 | 0.04 |
(b) Prognostic power for predicting mortality. Bold font indicates predictor with the higher AUROC. The P value column corresponds to DeLong test for difference between paired ROC curves | ||||
6-mRNA classifier | 97 | 0.78 (0.64–0.92) | ||
SOFA | 96 | 0.72 | 0.78 | 0.43 |
APACHE II | 93 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.84 |
Age | 96 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
PCT | 76 | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.63 |
CRP | 97 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
Lactate | 45 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 0.84 |
IL-6 | 97 | 0.57 | 0.78 | 0.003 |
suPAR | 97 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
