Table 3 Validation results given barns were infected 19, 6, and 3 days prior to and 1, 2, and 9 days after the date of the first test, assumed to have been performed on October 20.

From: Estimating epidemiological parameters using diagnostic testing data from low pathogenicity avian influenza infected turkey houses

Given time of virus introduction and adequate contact rate

Single barn estimates mode (median; 95% CI)

Average mode (median; 95% CI) estimated with the contact rate distribution from 1 additional house

Mode (median; 95% CI) estimated with the contact rate distribution from 5 additional barns

Oct 1;

Oct 8 (Oct 7;

Sep 20–Oct 12);

Oct 7 (Oct 6;

Sep 22–Oct 12);

Oct 3 (Oct 2;

Sep 24–Oct 9);

1.0

0.6 (3.2; 0.6–5.8)

2.0 (2.5; 0.7–5.5)

1.1 (1.4; 0.8–3.3)

Oct 14;

Oct 21 (Oct 20;

Oct 10–Oct 25);

Oct 19 (Oct 19;

Oct 9–Oct 24);

Oct 16 (Oct 16;

Oct 9–Oct 22);

1.0

6.0 (3.5; 0.9–5.8)

2.5 (2.8; 0.8–5.6)

1.2 (1.5; 0.8–3.5)

Oct 17;

Oct 25 (Oct 23;

Oct 9–Oct 27);

Oct 24 (Oct 22;

Oct 10–Oct 26);

Oct 20 (Oct 19;

Oct 11–Oct 24);

1.0

1.1 (3.1; 0.7–5.8)

1.3 (2.5; 0.8–5.5)

1.1 (1.4; 0.8–3.3)

Oct 21;

Oct 27 (Oct 25;

Oct 13–Oct 29);

Oct 26 (Oct 24;

Oct 15–Oct 29);

Oct 23 (Oct 23;

Oct 17–Oct 27);

1.0

1.1 (1.8; 0.6–5.4)

1.1 (1.7; 0.7–5.0)

1.1 (1.3; 0.8–2.6)

Oct 22;

Oct 26 (Oct 24;

Oct 13–Oct 29);

Oct 26 (Oct 24;

Oct 15–Oct 29);

Oct 24 (Oct 23;

Oct 17–Oct 27);

1.0

1.0 (1.6; 0.6–5.0)

1.0 (1.5; 0.7–4.7)

1.1 (1.3; 0.8–2.4)

Oct 29;

Nov 5 (Nov 4;

Oct 22–Nov 7);

Nov 4 (Nov 3;

Oct 24–Nov 7);

Nov 1 (Oct 31;

Oct 24–Nov 5);

1.0

1.3 (3.1; 0.7–5.8)

1.3 (2.5; 0.8–5.5)

1.1 (1.4; 0.8–3.3)

  1. The time of virus introduction and adequate contact rate were estimated from simulated test data based on the Kandiyohi 2 test data and a contact rate of 1.0 contacts per day. Results are given for the single barn approach and multiple house approach.
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