Table 2 COPD burden (prevalence and incidence) 10 (2028), 20 (2038) and 40 (2058) years from the implementation of the intervention.

From: Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden

Health measure

Scenario

Italy

England

Sweden

2028

2038

2058

2028

2038

2058

2028

2038

2058

COPD prevalence (%)

Reference

1.31

1.37

1.15

1.27

1.37

1.23

1.25

1.11

0.82

5% tobacco price increase

1.28

1.33

1.09

1.24

1.32

1.18

1.22

1.07

0.78

10% tobacco price increase

1.26

1.28

1.05

1.21

1.27

1.13

1.19

1.03

0.74

20% tobacco price increase

1.21

1.19

0.96

1.15

1.18

1.04

1.14

0.95

0.66

COPD incidence (cases/1,000 person-years)a

Reference

1.52

1.57

1.32

1.62

1.57

1.37

1.40

1.23

0.93

5% tobacco price increase

1.46

1.50

1.26

1.56

1.50

1.30

1.34

1.17

0.87

10% tobacco price increase

1.41

1.44

1.20

1.49

1.44

1.24

1.28

1.11

0.83

20% tobacco price increase

1.30

1.32

1.09

1.37

1.32

1.14

1.17

1.01

0.75

  1. Results reported per country and scenario.
  2. aThe COPD incidence value after 39 years (2057) instead of 40 years (2058) is given as DYNAMO does not calculate COPD incidence rates for the last year of the simulation.
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