Table 4 Predicted changes in smoking prevalence and smoking state probabilities attributable to a one-time tobacco price increase.
Age groups | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11–15 years | 16–18 years | 19–21 years | 22–29 years | > 30 years | ||
Price elasticity coefficienta | − 1.5 | − 1.5 | − 0.75 | − 0.75 | − 0.5 | |
Smoking prevalence | Current | ↓ of (100 – never) | ↓of (100 − (never + former)) | ↓ of (100 − (never + former)) | ↓ of (100 − (never + former)) | ↓ of (100 − (never + former)) |
Former | NA | ↑ of (1.5)•(% price increase) | ↑ of (0.75)•(% price increase) | ↑ of (0.75)•(% price increase) | ↑ of (0.5)•(% price increase) | |
Never | ↑ of (1.5)•(% price change) | ↑ of (1.5)•(% price increase) | ↑of (0.75)•(% price increase) | ↑ of (0.75)•(% price increase) | ↑ of (0.5)•(% price increase) | |
Smoking state probabilities | Initiation | ↓ of (1.5)•(% price change) | ↓ of (1.5)•(% price increase) | ↓ of (0.75)•(% price increase) | ↓ of (0.75)•(% price increase) | ↓ of (0.5)•(% price increase) |
Cessation | NA | ↑ of (1.5)•(% price increase) | ↑ of (0.75)•(% price increase) | ↑ of (0.75)•(% price increase) | ↑ of (0.5)•(% price increase) | |
Restart | NA | NA | NA | ↓ of (0.75)•(% price increase) | ↓ of (0.5)•(% price increase) | |
