Table 2 Land use change emissions and payback periods for solar penetration and solarland management scenarios.

From: The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy

 

Solar penetration level

Land management scenario in solarlanda

Direct and indirect land use change (LUC) emissions due to solar energyb

LUC emissions per occupied m2c

LUC CO2 payback period when replacing gas-fired electricity d

% and PWh in 2050 elect. mix

Within region

Outside region

Total

Solar energy

Bio-energy

Solar energy

Bio-energy

Grams of CO2 per kWh of solar electricity output between 2020 and 2050 (average)

kg CO2 (2020–2100) per m2 of dedicated land in 2050

Months

European Union

26% (1.19 PWh)

CLEAR

28.1 to 38.6

− 6.4 to − 4.6

21.8 to 34.0

4.4 to 5.2

3

4.7 to 7.1

46.9

MAINT

19.7 to 27.1

13.3 to 22.5

3.1 to 3.7

3.2 to 5.2

SEED

9.0 to 12.7

5.0 to 8.1

1.1 to 1.7

1.2 to 2.4

53% (2.54 PWh)

CLEAR

33.0 to 43.5

3.3 to 4.7

36.3 to 48.3

6.7 to 6.8

3.1

6.2 to 8.2

49.2

MAINT

24.0 to 30.9

27.3 to 36.6

5.3 to 5.4

4.8 to 6.5

SEED

11.7to 15.4

15.0 to 20.1

 ~ 3.1

2.9 to 3.8

79% (3.87 PWh)

CLEAR

34.6 to 46.7

5.6 to 6.9

40.2 to 53.6

7.2 to 7.3

3

6.4 to 8.3

49.3

MAINT

25.8 to 35.5

31.4 to 42.4

 ~ 5.9

5.2 to 6.7

SEED

12.7 to 18.1

18.3 to 24.9

3.5 to 3.6

3.2 to 4.0

India

30% (1.8 PWh)

CLEAR

10.0 to 12.5

− 4.0 to − 1.6

6.0 to 10.8

1.3 to 2.4

2.3

0.3 to 0.8

41.7

MAINT

8.1 to 10.0

4.1 to 8.4

0.6 to 1.7

0.2 to 0.6

SEED

1.1 to 1.3

− 2.7 to − 0.6

− 5.2 to − 6.2

− 1.5 to − 1.7

54% (3.29 PWh)

CLEAR

10.8 to 13.0

− 2.8 to − 1.3

8.0 to 11.7

2.5 to 3.1

2.3

0.6 to 1.0

43.2

MAINT

9.1 to 10.8

6.3 to 9.5

1.9 to 2.4

0.5 to 0.8

SEED

3.0 to 3.2

0.4 to 1.7

− 4.5 to − 5.0

− 1.2 to − 1.5

78% (4.88 PWh)

CLEAR

9.7 to 11.7

− 2.1 to − 0.9

7.6 to 10.8

2.9 to 3.2

2.4

0.7 to 1.1

43.9

MAINT

8.0 to 9.5

5.9 to 8.6

2.1 to 2.5

0.5 to 0.8

SEED

2.3 to 2.5

0.4 to 1.4

− 4.4 to − 4.8

− 1.2 to − 1.5

Japan and South-Korea

28% (0.5 PWh)

CLEAR

18.9 to 25.8

− 3.2 to 0.8

15.7 to 26.6

4.8 to 6.8

2.7

2.9 to 5.2

47.7

MAINT

12.8 to 17.5

9.6 to 18.2

2.2 to 4.1

1.4 to 3.1

SEED

6.8 to 10.0

3.6 to 10.7

− 0.3 to − 2.2

− 0.2 to − 1.3

46% (0.8 PWh)

CLEAR

23.0 to 30.6

− 2.1 to 0.6

20.9 to 31.1

6.1 to 7.2

2.6

3.3 to 5.0

47.3

MAINT

16.9 to 20.5

14.8 to 21.1

3.9 to 4.3

2.1 to 2.9

SEED

9.9 to 12.5

7.7 to 13.1

− 0.2 to − 1.2

− 0.2 to − 0.7

74% (1.3 PWh)

CLEAR

25.6 to 33.3

0.0 to 2.3

25.6 to 35.6

7.1 to 7.7

2.7

3.6 to 5.0

48.9

MAINT

15.6 to 20.0

15.6 to 22.2

3.5 to 3.9

1.8 to 2.6

SEED

10.0 to 12.9

10.0 to 15.2

− 0.5 to 0.0

− 0.3 to 0.0

  1. Ranges show results for with different future solar module efficiencies with left values within each solar-related column representing 28% efficiency and right values 20%. Results for bioenergy scenarios included for comparison.
  2. aCLEAR: permanently clearing land vegetation; MAINT: Maintain/restore previous vegetation (up to 30 cm); SEED: Seeding and management as pastures. See “Methods” section for a detailed description of these land management scenarios.
  3. bDividing all LUC emissions from 2020 to 2050 to the total amount of generated electricity (including non-land-based sources, such as solar rooftops, unproductive land or waste-to-energy plants for bioenergy).
  4. cDividing all LUC emissions from 2020, including delayed carbon release or sequestration until 2100, by the total land area dedicated to solar and bioenergy by 2050 (maximum point). Negative values indicate net carbon sequestration for every m2 of solarland.
  5. dCalculated assuming a thermal efficiency of 50% for natural gas power plants. Only taking account direct combustion emissions.
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