Figure 3
From: A novel methodology for epidemic risk assessment of COVID-19 outbreak
(a) A-priori normalized risk ranking of Italian regions, emerging from our analysis of risk indicators, compared with the corresponding total cases, deaths and intensive care occupancy updated, respectively, at April 2, 2020 (just before the epidemic peak) and at July 14, 2020 (at the end of the first wave). Regions are organized in four risk groups, corresponding to different colors: very high, high, medium and low risk. The agreement with the observed effects Data referring to overestimations or underestimations of risk are also colored in green and red, respectively. (b–d) Comparison between the spatial distribution of COVID-19 total cases at July 14, 2020 (b), the most struck regions (in terms of severe cases and deaths) from 2019–2020 seasonal flu (d) according to the ISS data19 and our a-priori risk map (c). The geographical correlation with the risk map is evident for both kind of epidemic flus. Maps were realized with QGIS 3.10 (https://qgis.org/en/site/).
