Figure 2

Variation in population growth rate (lambda) with climatic variables (minimum winter temperature, spring rainfall and summer water balance) for Helianthemum squamatum and Lepidium subulatum. Lambdas were obtained from the Integral Projection Model built for each species separately, adjusting it with the observed values of climatic variables from 2001 to 2015. Models were adjusted for block A and intra- and interspecific covers of 30%; results for block B were similar (see Supplementary Fig. S1). Right hand panels represent population growth rate per year combining the three climatic variables. Note that the highest value of simulated lambda (black line and open symbols) corresponded to 2012 in H. squamatum and 2006 in L. subulatum, whereas the highest increase in observed population growth rate (grey lines and filled symbols) occurred in 2010 and was much higher than that adjusted by the model.