Table 1 Comparison of different methods for state-level %ILI estimation.

From: Use Internet search data to accurately track state level influenza epidemics

 

Whole period

’14–’15

’15–’16

’16–’17

’17–’18

’18–’19

’19–’20

MSE

ARGOX

0.340

0.488

0.217

0.421

0.445

0.301

0.835

VAR

1.556

1.606

0.819

1.629

2.615

1.277

3.747

GFT

–

2.186

–

–

–

–

–

naive

0.473

0.665

0.257

0.551

0.779

0.434

1.150

MAE

ARGOX

0.340

0.380

0.311

0.407

0.423

0.359

0.580

VAR

0.597

0.633

0.516

0.693

0.825

0.668

1.058

GFT

–

0.944

–

–

–

–

–

naive

0.393

0.435

0.340

0.464

0.547

0.443

0.696

Correlation

ARGOX

0.949

0.914

0.832

0.875

0.937

0.921

0.902

VAR

0.857

0.806

0.693

0.752

0.854

0.813

0.772

GFT

–

0.904

–

–

–

–

–

naive

0.931

0.885

0.803

0.842

0.902

0.890

0.874

  1. The evaluation is based on the average of 51 US states/district/city in multiple periods and multiple metrics. The MSE, MAE, and correlation are reported. The method with the best performance is highlighted in boldface for each metric in each period. Methods considered here include ARGOX, VAR, GFT, and the naive method. All comparisons are conducted on the original scale of CDC’s %ILI. The whole period is Oct 11, 2014 to March 21, 2020. Columns 3 to 8 correspond to the regular flu seasons (week 40 to week 20 next year, defined by CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report; 19’-20’ season is up to March 21, 2020).
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