Figure 6
From: Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs
Case count modelling. (a), Modeling case counts as uncontrolled outbreaks. Case counts, here for Germany (seven-day centered averages, dots), can be modeled using either the full XI representation (full line), as given by Eq. (3), or with the standard uncontrolled SIR model (\(\alpha _X=0\), dashed lines). Using the nominal population size for Germany, 83 Million, leads to an utterly unrealistic \(\alpha _X=0\) curve (dashed, grey). The best \(\alpha _X=0\) fit is obtained when a fictitious population size of 478 Thousand is assumed (dashed, black). An epidemic abates on its own only when the population size is of the order of the total case count divided by \(X_{\mathrm{tot}}\). (b) XI representation of the 2015 MERS outbreak in South Korea, covering a total of 186 cases. A \(n=7\) centered average has been used, in view of the small case numbers.
