Figure 5
(a) Average node degree in the evolving contact networks. Regardless demand stability p, an average traveller is linked to 1.7 other travellers each day. Yet if the demand is unstable it evolves, after 10 days it reaches 1.9 if \(p=0.99\), 2.5 if \(p=0.95\) and goes beyond 3 if \(p<0.8\). (b) Mean transmission rate r (number of new infections per infected) distributions. The long tails for low demand stability reveal the super-spreaders (transmitting to 5 and more travellers). For a stable demand initial infections does not manage to transmit a disease effectively, eventually reducing transmissivity below 1 when \(p>0.9\). (c) Insights into the first phase of the epidemic outbreak in the case of 10 initial infections. When first infected travellers are diagnosed after 7 days, their accumulated contact network may vary from 18 to over 60 infected travellers. If contact tracing and mitigation strategies are put in place, already infected travellers may be identified and quarantined before the second outbreak after day 7.
