Figure 1

Top row, left panel: fitted results for Italy, \(h_m(250)=0.3966\%\) and \(h(250)=0.4051\%\). Data in percentage of population for detected cases, obtained from Worldometer, is plotted using green circles. We have plotted the data of alternate days for clarity. The fit to the detected cases obtained using the mean-\(\beta\) model is shown by a dashed red curve, and that using the continuum model is shown by a solid blue curve. The parameters used in the mean-\(\beta\) model and continuum model for obtaining the fit are reported in row 1 of Tables 3 and 4, respectively. The red and blue shaded bands correspond to \(\pm 2\%\) variations in the parameters in the mean-\(\beta\) model and the continuum model, respectively. Top row, right panel: Percentage of infected people obtained from the mean-\(\beta\) model (dashed red curve) and the continuum model (solid blue curve), respectively; \(w_m(250)=90.4331\%\) and \(w(250)=19.4350\%\). The red and blue shaded bands correspond to \(\pm 2\%\) variations in the parameters in the mean-\(\beta\) and the continuum model, respectively. Middle row, left panel: Variation of \(E_{0m}\) in the \(p_m-\tau _m\) plane (for low values of \(p_m\)) obtained using the mean-\(\beta\) model. The parameters \(\beta _m\) and \(V_0\) are fixed at the values reported in row 1 of Table 3. Bottom row, left panel: Variation of \(E_{0m}\) in the \({\bar{p}}_m-\tau _m\) plane. Middle row, right panel: Variation of \(E_{0}\) in the \(p-\tau\) plane (for low values of p) obtained from the continuum model. The parameters a, m, and \(f_0\) are fixed at the values reported in row 1 of Table 4. Bottom row, right panel: Variation of \(E_{0}\) in the \({\bar{p}}-\tau\) plane.