Figure 3
Post-AE cumulative survival rates by the GAP model and prognostic classification model 1. (a) The post-AE 90-day cumulative survival rates of the patients by GAP stage: GAP stage I, 59.3% (95% CI 44.3–71.5); GAP stage II, 68.8% (95% CI 53.6–79.8); and GAP stage III, 60% (95% CI 25.3–82.7), with GAP stage I compared with GAP stage II (adjusted p = 0.45 by Wilcoxon test) and GAP stage II compared with GAP stage III (adjusted p = 0.26, by Wilcoxon test). The discrimination performance (C-index) of this model for post-AE 90-day survival was 0.526 (95% CI 0.417–0.634). (b) The post-AE 90-day cumulative survival rates of the patients with AE-IPF who had %FVCs ≥ 56% and those with %FVCs < 56% were 72.6% (95% CI 61.4–81.0) and 40.7% (95% CI 22.5–58.2), respectively (p < 0.01 by Wilcoxon test). (c) The post-AE 90-day cumulative survival rates of the patients with AE-IPF who had P/F ratios ≥ 252 Torr and those with P/F ratios < 252 Torr were 82.2% (95% CI 67.6–90.7) and 50.8% (95% CI 38.7–63.3), respectively (p < 0.01 by Wilcoxon test). (d) The post-AE 90-day cumulative survival rates of the patients by total risk scores of 0 (mild), 1 (moderate), and 2 (severe) were 83.3% (95% CI 66.7–92.1), 66.2% (95% CI 51.9–77.2), and 22.2% (95% CI 6.9–42.9), with the mild group compared with the moderate group (adjusted p = 0.04 by Wilcoxon test) and the moderate group compared with the severe group (adjusted p < 0.01 by Wilcoxon test). The discrimination performance (C-index) of this model for post-AE 90-day survival was 0.702 (95% CI 0.61–0.80). AE acute exacerbation, FVC forced Vital Capacity, GAP Gender-Age-Physiology, IPF idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, P/F PaO2-to-FiO2 ratio.
