Figure 4

Model prediction according to different values of the parameter \(\alpha\), the period of time between infection and isolation. For each curve we did 100 runs of the model. The value p is fixed to 0.1 and the mobility is the one fitted for \(\alpha =5\). (A) Daily discovered (isolated) cases for different values of \(\alpha\). (B) Daily actually infected cases for different values of \(\alpha\). (C) Accumulated discovered (isolated) cases as function of time. The blue curve represents the temporal evolution of the actual accumulated cases obtained from official data. (D) Accumulated infected cases as function of time. (E) Accumulated isolated cases after 600 days as a function of \(\alpha\). (F) Accumulated infected cases after 600 days as a function of \(\alpha\). The longer the time to discover and isolate new infected cases, the greater the number of patients expected and, therefore, the greater the number of isolated people.