Figure 4

Illustration of possible paths from the starting state (\(\pi\)) to a diagnosis (\(z\)) at time T on a discrete grid of time vs state. Only 4 states (corresponding to 2 LNLs) are shown, where green indicates healthy and purple involved. Following the arrows from \(\pi\) to \(z\) yields a possible path. Some connections between states are forbidden due to \(Q\) (no self-healing). To calculate the probability of a diagnosis (\(z\)), we must marginalize over all paths.