Table 3 Sensitivity analysis: 5-year health and cost effectiveness outcomes for different scenarios of dog turnover and dog-to-dog rabies infectiousness.

Outcome	Policy	Scenarios^c
Outcome	Policy	Baseline	High Turnover	Low Turnover
Human deaths^a	No vaccination No PEP^b	5945	4811	5436
	No vaccination Baseline PEP	1383	1096	1267
	Vaccination 2021 Baseline PEP	65	16	28
	Vaccination 2022 Baseline PEP	350	123	245
PEP^b courses required	No vaccination No PEP	0	0	0
	No vaccination Baseline PEP	119,735	100,908	109,618
	Vaccination 2021 Baseline PEP	5864	1455	2523
	Vaccination 2022 Baseline PEP	33,578	16,456	25,829
Total costs	No vaccination No PEP	$0	$0	$0
	No vaccination Baseline PEP	$8,895,651	$7,496,169	$8,144,086
	Vaccination 2021 Baseline PEP	$7,966,175	$7,915,145	$7,156,059
	Vaccination 2022 Baseline PEP	$8,250,969	$7,078,203	$7,148,555
Average cost per human death averted	No vaccination No PEP	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
	No vaccination Baseline PEP	$1950	$2018	$1953
	Vaccination 2021 Baseline PEP	$1355	$1651	$1323
	Vaccination 2022 Baseline PEP	$1475	$1510	$1377

^aTotal human rabies deaths; we assume only 10% of these would be reported.
^bPEP = post-exposure prophylaxis. The baseline PEP assumption is that 80% (outside Ouest Department) or 85% (Ouest Department) of humans exposed to a suspected rabid dog receive PEP, and that 1/5 suspected exposures are true rabies exposures. In people with true rabies exposures, PEP reduces the probability of death. PEP coverage is assumed to remain fixed throughout 2021–2025 in all scenarios.
^cBaseline scenario uses input values as in Table S1. High turnover scenario uses a higher-than-baseline values for dog birth rate and mortality (which define dog turnover rate) and lower R₀ (number dogs infected per infectious dog). Low turnover scenario uses lower values defining dog turnover but a higher R₀ value (Supplementary Appendix Table S2).

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