Table 1 Median percentage error for each model and day of forecast, as plotted in Fig. 4. The error is presented for each model and geographical region, and for 1 to 10 day forecasts.
From: Public mobility data enables COVID-19 forecasting and management at local and global scales
Model | Country | Level | Median percentage error (MPE) for forecast length (days) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
Mobility | World | ADM0 | 0.90 | 2.19 | 3.46 | 4.83 | 6.35 | 7.80 | 9.54 | 11.00 | 12.60 | 15.24 |
No Mobility | World | ADM0 | 1.50 | 3.84 | 6.32 | 8.70 | 11.46 | 14.42 | 16.91 | 19.75 | 25.28 | 31.12 |
Mobility | China | ADM1 | −0.20 | 1.41 | 3.05 | 4.55 | 5.91 | 7.54 | 7.60 | 17.59 | 53.26 | 124.82 |
No Mobility | China | ADM1 | 1.47 | 5.39 | 8.84 | 14.10 | 18.45 | 23.45 | 26.80 | 45.86 | 64.95 | 112.03 |
Mobility | China | ADM2 | −0.44 | 0.89 | 2.11 | 3.29 | 4.18 | 5.19 | 6.10 | 6.80 | 50.66 | 131.09 |
No Mobility | China | ADM2 | 1.37 | 5.17 | 8.59 | 12.48 | 16.83 | 22.33 | 28.14 | 35.70 | 65.09 | 128.80 |
Mobility | Italy | ADM1 | 0.89 | 2.70 | 5.60 | 5.68 | 8.29 | 6.65 | 9.31 | 6.83 | 14.39 | 34.19 |
No Mobility | Italy | ADM1 | 4.86 | 13.66 | 23.12 | 33.69 | 45.03 | 61.06 | 80.95 | 107.48 | 133.98 | 172.74 |
Mobility | Italy | ADM2 | −0.87 | −0.90 | −0.81 | −1.06 | −1.73 | −2.11 | −2.08 | −0.99 | 4.41 | 13.27 |
No Mobility | Italy | ADM2 | 4.96 | 14.20 | 23.75 | 35.26 | 45.81 | 61.66 | 73.96 | 95.47 | 128.89 | 167.97 |
Mobility | US | ADM1 | 1.13 | 2.62 | 3.97 | 5.45 | 6.68 | 8.52 | 11.19 | 14.28 | 17.24 | 21.82 |
No Mobility | US | ADM1 | 3.50 | 9.39 | 15.29 | 21.79 | 29.22 | 37.11 | 45.54 | 57.36 | 71.72 | 88.73 |
Mobility | US | ADM2 | 0.98 | 2.30 | 3.64 | 5.21 | 7.00 | 8.77 | 11.00 | 14.28 | 16.67 | 20.75 |
No Mobility | US | ADM2 | 2.80 | 7.72 | 12.62 | 17.79 | 23.79 | 30.34 | 37.37 | 48.43 | 63.31 | 79.47 |
