Figure 5
From: Warming Arctic summers unlikely to increase productivity of shorebirds through renesting
Estimated probability of a Dunlin chick surviving to 15 days of age near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, 2008–2009 as a function of hatch date (solid line; 95% CI shown as dashed lines). Survival probabilities and associated CIs were estimated using average invertebrate biomass estimates based on date and 10,000 simulations of the beta estimates assuming a multivariate normal distribution and the variance–covariance matrix from the top-ranked model (HD*A2 + I; where HD = hatch date, A = chick age, and I = daily invertebrate biomass; Table 1). Although no invertebrate data were available after 4 August in 2008 and 8 August in 2009, we assumed these values would be close to zero due to prior trends.
