Table 2 Regression coefficients, relative risk and 95% credible interval from Bayesian spatial and non-spatial models of pneumonia cases in Bhutan, January 2010-December 2018.
From: Spatio-temporal patterns of childhood pneumonia in Bhutan: a Bayesian analysis
Model/variable | Coeff, posterior mean (95% CrI) | RR, posterior mean (95% CrI) |
|---|---|---|
Model I (unstructured) | ||
α (Intercept)† | − 2.28 (− 2.59, − 1.32) | |
Age‡ | 2.658 (2.636, 2.680) | 14.268 (13.957, 14.585) |
Sex‡‡ | − 0.120 (− 0.134, − 0.105) | 0.887 (0.875, 0.900) |
Mean monthly trend | − 3.43 × 10–3 (− 4.26 × 10–3, − 2.58 × 10–3) | 0.9966 (0.9957, 0.9974) |
Altitude (100 m) | 1.32 × 10–5 (− 1.84 × 10–7, 2.62 × 10–5) | 1.001 (1.000, 1.003) |
Rainfall (10 mm) | 7.67 × 10–4 (− 3.96 × 10–7, 1.54 × 10–3) | 1.008 (1.000, 1.015) |
RH (10%)** | − 1.25 × 10–3 (− 1.45 × 10–3, − 1.06 × 10–3) | 0.988 (0.986, 0.989) |
Maximum temp (°C) | 1.31 × 10–2 (1.26 × 10–2, 1.37 × 10–2) | 1.013 (1.013, 1.014) |
Extra zero¥ | 0.169 (0.162, 0.177) | |
Heterogeneity | ||
Unstructured | 1.694 (1.306, 2.149) | |
Structured (trend) | 0.188 (0.138, 0.238) | |
DIC* | 159,881.0 | |
Model II (structured) | ||
α (Intercept)† | − 2.544 (− 2.658, − 2.431) | |
Age‡ | 2.659 (2.561, 2.758) | 14.282 (12.949, 15.768) |
Sex‡‡ | − 0.120 (− 0.169, − 0.071) | 0.887 (0.845, 0.932) |
Mean monthly trend | − 3.42 × 10–3 (− 4.31 × 10–3, − 2.51 × 10–3) | 0.9966 (0.9957, 0.9975) |
Altitude (100 m) | 1.34 × 10–5 (− 1.14 × 10–6, 2.77 × 10–5) | 1.000 (1.000, 1.000) |
Rainfall (10 mm) | 6.80 × 10–3 (− 4.40 × 10–3, 1.81 × 10–2 | 1.007 (0.996, 1.018) |
RH (10%)** | − 1.25 × 10–3 (− 1.54 × 10–3, 9.75 × 10–4) | 0.999 (0.998, 0.999) |
Maximum temp (°C) | 5.93 × 10–2 (5.51 × 10–2, 6.35 × 10–2) | 1.061 (1.057, 1.066) |
Extra zero¥ | 0.169 (0.150, 0.189) | |
Heterogeneity | ||
Structured (spatial) | 1.685 (1.291, 2.147) | |
Structured (trend) | 0.039 (0.030, 0.048) | |
DIC | 160,115.0 | |
Model III (mixed) | ||
α (Intercept)† | − 2.54 (− 2.89, − 2.01) | |
Age‡ | 2.568 (2.597, 2.719) | 14.268 (13.423, 15.165) |
Sex‡‡ | − 0.12 (− 0.151, − 0.09) | 0.887 (0.860, 0.914) |
Mean monthly trend | − 3.42 × 10–3 (− 4.26 × 10–3, − 2.56 × 10–3) | 0.9966 (0.9957, 0.9974) |
Altitude (100 m) | 1.33 × 10–5 (− 3.55 × 10–7, 2.68 × 10–5) | 1.013 (1.000, 1.027) |
Rainfall (10 mm) | 7.64 × 10–4 (− 1.78 × 10–4, 1.70 × 10–3 | 1.008 (0.998, 1.017) |
RH (10%)** | − 3.33 × 10–2 (− 3.78 × 10–2, 1.92 × 10–2) | 0.967 (0.963, 0.981) |
Maximum temp (°C) | 5.93 × 10–2 (5.62 × 10–2, 6.24 × 10–2) | 1.061 (1.058, 1.064) |
Extra zero¥ | 0.169 (0.157, 0.182) | |
Heterogeneity | ||
Unstructured | 1.67 (1.29, 2.13) | |
Structured (spatial) | 0.32 (0.21, 0.48) | |
Structured (trend) | 0.08 (0.05, 0.13) | |
DIC | 159,983.0 | |
