Table 3 Demographic modeling parameter estimates for each of eight 2-population models.

Model description	Model #	Growth parameters		N_e		Ancestral N_e	T_divergence (generations)	Migration		ΔModel likelihood	ΔAIC
Model description	Model #	TU	TT	TU	TT	Ancestral N_e	T_divergence (generations)	TU → TT	TT → TU	ΔModel likelihood	ΔAIC
2 Population with gene flow	1	−	0	40,999	10,058	446,164	28,480	0.00356	0.00435	31.13	−
	1	−	0	(38,052–43,946)	(7998–12,119)	(398,862–493,466)	(23,685–33,276)	(0.00279–0.00434)	(0.00386–0.00485)	31.13	−
	2	0	−	3302	83,980	734,783	5046	0.00251	0.59000	39.68	39.36
	3	−	−	47,370	81,411	253,462	53,643	0.00377	0.00027	36.32	23.88
	4	+	+	21,677	72,582	380,356	2587	0.00702	0.00574	35.73	21.17
	5	0	+	505	54,433	743,812	2274	0.00489	0.00605	38.05	31.84
	6	+	0	18,046	7769	816,466	5739	0.00170	0.00401	36.72	25.73
	7	0	0	687	1724	523,521	1247	0.00596	0.00464	35.67	20.88
2 Population	8	0	0	435	791	110,201	38	−	−	136.83	484.7

TU refers to Tugur mainstem, while TT refers to Tugur tributaries.
Growth parameters for each population represent expansion (+), contraction (−), and no change (0) following the ancestral divergence.
Model numbers correspond to those in Fig. 4
For the best fit model (model 1), 95% confidence intervals are given in parentheses.

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