Table 3 List of sensitivity scenarios.
From: Near and long-term perspectives on strategies to decarbonize China’s heavy-duty trucks through 2050
Scenario | Input parameter sensitivity |
|---|---|
Frozen energy intensity | No change in HDT energy intensities to set maximum upper bound for energy consumption given existing activity growth and fuel share projections |
Lower energy intensity reduction | Tests 50% of modeled energy efficiency improvement under Short-term Strategies Scenario, to account for uncertainties in future technological or policy progress |
Higher fleet activity | Tests 50% increase in total fleet activity (i.e., vehicle-kilometers travelled) to account for uncertainties in faster rise in vehicle stock, higher than projected average distance travelled per vehicle, or a combination of both |
NEV HDT early adoption of hydrogen fuel cell | Tests the earlier and accelerated adoption of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks instead of accelerated adoption of electric heavy-duty trucks due to uncertainties in technological adoption. Assumes that hydrogen fuel cell trucks will reach 30% of the heavy-duty stock by 2050, with electric trucks only reaching 15% by 2050 |
NEV HDT early adoption of plug-in hybrid | Tests the alternative earlier adoption of plug-in hybrid diesel heavy-duty trucks instead of battery electric trucks due to potential cost and range advantages. Assumes that plug-in hybrid HDT adoption will follow same adoption rates as battery electric through 2040, and reach 20% share of heavy-duty stock by 2050 |
