Table 1 Estimable parameters and prior specifications for Bayesian state-space models. Alternative prior specifications were considered in the sensitivity analyses (Scens 1–14).
Parameter | Base case prior | Alternative prior |
|---|---|---|
\(N_{recent}\) | \(N_{2019} \sim unif\left( {100, 10,000} \right)\) | \(N_{2004} \sim unif\left( {100, 10,000} \right)\) (Scen6) |
Maximum rate of increase | \(R_{max} \sim unif\left( {0, 0.11} \right)\) | \(R_{max} \sim lnorm\left( { - 2.67, 0.5} \right)\) (Scen1) |
\(R_{max} \sim lnorm\left( { - 2.67, 0.3} \right)\) (Scen2) | ||
\(R_{max} \sim lnorm\left( { - 2.67, 0.5} \right)t\left( {0.02, 0.11} \right)\) (Scen3) | ||
Process variance | \(\sigma^{2} \sim unif\left( {6.5e^{ - 5} , 6.5e^{ - 4} } \right)\) | \(\sigma^{2} \sim unif\left( {6.5e^{ - 5} , 6.5e^{ - 3} } \right)\) (Scen4) |
\(\sigma^{2} \sim unif\left( {6.5e^{ - 5} , 1.3e^{ - 4} } \right)\) (Scen5) | ||
Depletion at maximum sustainable yield | \(P_{msy} \sim unif\left( {0.5, 0.8} \right)\) | |
Struck and lost’ rate factor (period: 1771–1850) | \(SRL_{1} \sim norm\left( {1.6,0.04^{2} } \right)\) | |
Struck and lost’ rate factor (period: 1851–1973) | \(SRL_{2} \sim norm\left( {1.09,0.04^{2} } \right)\) | |
Catch parameter | \(\pi \sim unif\left( {0, 1} \right)\) | |
Catchability | Analytically derived | \(\tau^{2} \sim lnorm\left( {{\text{log}}\left( {0.2} \right), 0.5} \right)\) (Scen13) |
Density-dependence of catchability | \(\beta = 0\) | \(\beta \sim norm\left( {0, 0.1} \right)\) (Scen14) |
