Table 1 Observed and projected age-standardised mortality rates for colon and rectal cancers to 2040 in Australia.
Age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 for colon and rectal cancersa | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Observed | % change from 1972 to 2015 | % change from 2005 to 2015 | Projected | % change from 2015 to 2040 | |||||||
1972 | 2005 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | ||||
Colon cancer | |||||||||||
Overall | 11.6 | 8.4 | 6.1 | − 47.4 | − 27.4 | 5.1 (4.8–5.6) | 4.6 (4.2–5.1) | 4.3 (3.8–4.9) | 4.1 (3.6–4.7) | 3.9 (3.4–4.6) | − 36.1 |
< 50 years | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | − 53.3 | 16.7 | 0.8 (0.7–0.9) | 0.9 (0.8–1.2) | 1.1 (0.9–1.4) | 1.2 (1.0–1.6) | 1.3 (1.0–1.6) | 85.7 |
50–74 years | 39.8 | 29.4 | 18.7 | − 53.0 | − 36.4 | 14.6 (13.7–15.6) | 12.5 (11.4–13.6) | 11.3 (10.3–12.5) | 10.8 (9.7–11.9) | 10.4 (9.3–11.6) | − 44.4 |
75+ | 162.0 | 132.2 | 109.7 | − 32.3 | − 17.0 | 94.6 (89.2–100.3) | 81.4 (75.5–87.7) | 69.2 (63.4–75.4) | 59.0 (53.6–65.0) | 52.4 (47.2–58.2) | − 52.2 |
Males | 12.4 | 9.7 | 7.0 | − 43.5 | − 27.8 | 5.8 (5.3–6.2) | 5.2 (4.7–5.8) | 5.0 (4.4–5.7) | 4.8 (4.2–5.6) | 4.7 (4.0–5.5) | − 32.9 |
< 50 years | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | − 40.0 | 50.0 | 1.0 (0.8–1.1) | 1.3 (1.0–1.5) | 1.6 (1.2–2.0) | 1.8 (1.4–2.3) | 1.8 (1.4–2.4) | 100.0 |
50–74 years | 42.9 | 34.4 | 21.8 | − 49.2 | − 36.6 | 16.5 (15.5–17.6) | 14.0 (12.8–15.2) | 12.6 (11.4–13.8) | 11.9 (10.7–13.2) | 11.5 (10.3–12.8) | − 47.2 |
75+ | 172.6 | 154.5 | 119.3 | − 30.9 | − 22.8 | 100.7 (94.8–106.8) | 86.2 (79.9–92.9) | 73.9 (67.7–80.6) | 63.8 (58.0–70.2) | 57.2 (51.6–63.4) | − 52.1 |
Females | 11.0 | 7.2 | 5.3 | − 51.8 | − 26.4 | 4.6 (4.2–4.9) | 4.1 (3.7–4.5) | 3.7 (3.3–4.1) | 3.4 (3.0–3.9) | 3.2 (2.8–3.7) | − 39.6 |
< 50 years | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | − 66.7 | − 16.7 | 0.6 (0.5–0.7) | 0.7 (0.5–0.8) | 0.7 (0.5–0.9) | 0.7 (0.5–0.9) | 0.7 (0.5–0.9) | 40.0 |
50–74 years | 37.2 | 24.6 | 15.8 | − 57.5 | − 35.8 | 12.8 (12.0–13.7) | 11.1 (10.1–12.1) | 10.1 (9.2–11.2) | 9.7 (8.7–10.8) | 9.4 (8.5–10.6) | − 40.5 |
75+ | 155.3 | 116.9 | 101.9 | − 34.4 | − 12.8 | 89.5 (84.4–94.9) | 77.2 (71.6–83.2) | 65.2 (59.7–71.1) | 55.1 (50.0–60.7) | 48.5 (43.6–53.9) | − 52.4 |
Rectal cancer | |||||||||||
Overall | 5.5 | 4.6 | 3.7 | − 32.7 | − 19.6 | 3.4 (3.1–3.8) | 3.2 (2.9–3.7) | 3.1 (2.7–3.6) | 3.0 (2.6–3.6) | 3.0 (2.5–3.5) | − 18.9 |
< 50 years | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | − 16.7 | 0.0 | 0.5 (0.4–0.7) | 0.6 (0.5–0.8) | 0.6 (0.5–0.9) | 0.7 (0.5–0.9) | 0.7 (0.5–0.9) | 40.0 |
50–74 years | 18.9 | 17.1 | 12.3 | − 34.9 | − 28.1 | 11.4 (10.5–12.4) | 10.4 (9.4–11.6) | 9.9 (8.7–11.2) | 9.6 (8.4–11.0) | 9.4 (8.2–10.9) | − 23.6 |
75+ | 79.6 | 58.5 | 52.2 | − 34.4 | − 10.8 | 47.8 (44.1–51.8) | 44.3 (40.0–49.1) | 41.1 (36.5–46.2) | 38.3 (33.6–43.6) | 36.3 (31.6–41.7) | − 30.5 |
Males | 7.0 | 6.4 | 4.9 | − 30.0 | − 23.4 | 4.5 (4.1–4.9) | 4.2 (3.7–4.7) | 4.0 (3.5–4.6) | 3.8 (3.3–4.5) | 3.7 (3.2–4.4) | − 24.5 |
< 50 years | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | − 28.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 (0.6–0.8) | 0.8 (0.6–1.0) | 0.9 (0.7–1.2) | 1.0 (0.7–1.3) | 1.0 (0.7–1.3) | 100.0 |
50–74 years | 23.4 | 23.8 | 16.5 | − 29.5 | − 30.7 | 14.6 (13.6–15.8) | 13.1 (11.9–14.4) | 12.1 (10.9–13.6) | 11.7 (10.4–13.2) | 11.4 (10.1–12.9) | − 30.9 |
75+ | 108.0 | 86.5 | 72.7 | − 32.7 | − 16.0 | 65.5 (60.9–70.4) | 58.9 (53.7–64.5) | 52.9 (47.7–58.8) | 47.8 (42.6–53.6) | 44.2 (39.1–49.9) | − 39.2 |
Females | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | − 40.9 | − 16.1 | 2.5 (2.2–2.8) | 2.4 (2.1–2.8) | 2.3 (2.0–2.8) | 2.3 (1.9–2.8) | 2.3 (1.9–2.7) | − 11.5 |
< 50 years | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | − 20.0 |
50–74 years | 15.1 | 10.6 | 8.2 | − 45.7 | − 22.6 | 8.3 (7.6–9.2) | 8.0 (7.1–9.1) | 7.8 (6.8–9.0) | 7.7 (6.6–9.0) | 7.6 (6.5–8.9) | − 7.3 |
75+ | 64.8 | 39.4 | 36.9 | − 43.1 | − 6.3 | 33.9 (30.9–37.2) | 32.5 (28.9–36.6) | 31.4 (27.4–36.0) | 30.6 (26.3–35.5) | 30.0 (25.6–35.1) | − 18.7 |
