Table 2 Observed and projected numbers of deaths from colon and rectal cancers to 2040 in Australia.
Number of deaths from colon and rectal cancersa | % change from 2015 to 2040 | Total in 2016–2040 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Observed | Projected | |||||||
2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | |||
Colon cancer | ||||||||
Overall | ||||||||
All ages | 3193 | 3096 (2894–3314) | 3120 (2860–3408) | 3190 (2879–3541) | 3248 (2898–3648) | 3269 (2893–3703) | 2.4 | 79,374 (72,338–87,270) |
< 50 years | 146 | 177 (149–210) | 227 (185–279) | 297 (235–374) | 348 (271–447) | 376 (290–487) | 157.5 | 6652 (5318–8333) |
50–74 years | 1251 | 1124 (1053–1201) | 1020 (938–1110) | 975 (885–1075) | 969 (873–1076) | 977 (876–1090) | − 21.9 | 25,783 (23,667–28,100) |
75+ | 1796 | 1795 (1692–1904) | 1873 (1737–2019) | 1918 (1759–2092) | 1931 (1754–2125) | 1916 (1727–2125) | 6.7 | 46,939 (43,353–50,838) |
Males | ||||||||
All ages | 1614 | 1551 (1448–1662) | 1580 (1444–1730) | 1639 (1474–1828) | 1688 (1498–1908) | 1711 (1505–1951) | 6.0 | 40,585 (36,851–44,813) |
< 50 years | 88 | 108 (92–128) | 149 (121–182) | 204 (162–257) | 249 (193–320) | 273 (210–355) | 210.3 | 4530 (3613–5689) |
50–74 years | 715 | 621 (582–662) | 555 (511–603) | 526 (478–579) | 519 (468–575) | 520 (467–579) | − 27.3 | 14,017 (12,888–15,251) |
75+ | 811 | 821 (774–872) | 876 (812–944) | 909 (834–991) | 921 (837–1013) | 918 (828–1017) | 13.2 | 22,038 (20,350–23,873) |
Females | ||||||||
All ages | 1579 | 1545 (1446–1652) | 1541 (1415–1678) | 1551 (1405–1713) | 1559 (1399–1740) | 1558 (1388–1752) | − 1.3 | 38,789 (35,487–42,458) |
< 50 years | 58 | 68 (57–81) | 78 (64–97) | 93 (73–117) | 99 (78–127) | 103 (80–132) | 77.3 | 2122 (1705–2644) |
50–74 years | 536 | 503 (471–538) | 465 (427–507) | 449 (407–496) | 450 (405–501) | 457 (409–511) | − 14.7 | 11,766 (10,779–12,849) |
75+ | 985 | 973 (918–1032) | 997 (925–1074) | 1009 (925–1101) | 1010 (917–1112) | 998 (899–1109) | 1.3 | 24,901 (23,003–26,965) |
Rectal cancer | ||||||||
Overall | ||||||||
All ages | 1751 | 1872 (1712–2050) | 1992 (1776–2238) | 2134 (1867–2445) | 2262 (1956–2625) | 2370 (2032–2773) | 35.3 | 52,004 (46,031–58,933) |
< 50 years | 106 | 121 (98–149) | 141 (109–184) | 171 (127–232) | 189 (137–261) | 201 (145–280) | 89.6 | 3920 (2963–5207) |
50–74 years | 807 | 859 (791–934) | 841 (756–936) | 841 (744–952) | 853 (746–975) | 873 (759–1005) | 8.2 | 21,295 (19,068–23,803) |
75+ | 838 | 892 (823–967) | 1009 (911–1118) | 1121 (997–1261) | 1220 (1072–1389) | 1296 (1128–1488) | 54.6 | 26,788 (23,999–29,923) |
Males | ||||||||
All ages | 1086 | 1150 (1060–1249) | 1205 (1085–1340) | 1268 (1122–1437) | 1317 (1152–1510) | 1353 (1174–1564) | 24.6 | 31,003 (27,740–34,751) |
< 50 years | 57 | 75 (61–92) | 95 (74–121) | 120 (90–159) | 135 (100–182) | 144 (106–197) | 153.5 | 2675 (2047–3504) |
50–74 years | 536 | 542 (503–584) | 512 (465–563) | 501 (449–559) | 502 (446–566) | 510 (450–578) | − 4.8 | 12,923 (11,717–14,261) |
75+ | 493 | 533 (495–573) | 599 (546–656) | 647 (583–719) | 680 (606–762) | 698 (618–789) | 41.6 | 15,405 (13,976–16,986) |
Females | ||||||||
All ages | 665 | 723 (652–801) | 787 (691–898) | 865 (745–1007) | 946 (804–1115) | 1017 (858–1209) | 52.9 | 21,001 (18,291–24,182) |
< 50 years | 49 | 45 (37–56) | 47 (35–63) | 51 (36–73) | 54 (38–79) | 56 (39–83) | 15.3 | 1245 (917–1703) |
50–74 years | 271 | 318 (288–350) | 329 (291–373) | 340 (295–392) | 351 (300–409) | 363 (309–427) | 34.0 | 8372 (7351–9542) |
75+ | 345 | 360 (328–394) | 411 (365–462) | 474 (414–542) | 540 (466–627) | 597 (510–700) | 73.2 | 11,384 (10,023–12,937) |
