Figure 2
Model and controller behavior without variant (purple and blue lines) and with a more infectious variant (green and blue lines). The effect of the variant is modeled by doubling the transmission rate on 12/21/21. The feedback law is designed to simultaneously maximize contact levels and maintain hospitalizations below the threshold \({h}_{lim }\). All simulations are conducted by using a single-compartment model that is fitted using data from the state of Colorado, USA (see “Methods” section). Results are averaged over 10,000 simulations with parameters sampled using a Latin Hypercube technique within \(15\%\) of their nominal values. Continuous line shows mean of the trajectory and shaded area show 99.73% confidence intervals.
