Table 1 Gallup polls19 showing social positions, environmental and climate data21 along with \(R^2\) fit values. The best fits are in bold.
From: Modelling shifts in social opinion through an application of classical physics
Name | Description | \(R^2\) |
|---|---|---|
Linear/2nd-ord. poly/logistic | ||
Tracking change in states | ||
Interracial marriage (S1) | Number of states that support interracial marriage, up through the Loving vs. Virginia Supreme Court decision of 1967 | 0.878/0.902/0.896 |
Prohibition (S2) | The number of dry states prior to the 18th Amendment (Prohibition) | 0.268/0.493/0.363 |
Woman’s suffrage (S3) | Number of states that let women vote in presidential elections before the 19th Amendment took effect | 0.683/0.892/0.899 |
Abortion (S4) | Number of states that allowed at least some abortions before the Supreme Court ruled in Roe vs. Wade Decision | 0.798/0.829/0.703 |
Same-sex marriage (S5) | Number of states that allowed same-sex marriage before the Supreme Court ruled in Obergefell vs. Hodges in 2015 | 0.711/0.920/0.928 |
Recreational marijuana (S6) | Number of states where recreational marijuana is legal | 0.725/0.813/0.823 |
Polling of popular topics | ||
Non-religious affiliation (O1) | Percentage of Americans with no religious affiliation (1948–2009) | 0.893/0.899/0.890 |
Church membership (O2) | Trends in American attendance in church/synagogue/mosque (1952–2019) | 0.619/0.754/– |
Women for president (O3) | American’s willingness to vote for a woman for president (1937–2019) | 0.935/0.955/– |
Black for president (O4) | American’s willingness to vote for a black president (1958–2019) | 0.904/0.967/– |
Ideal family size (O5) | Americans’ views on ideal family size with no more than two children in a family (1936–2018) | 0.520/0.568/0.466 |
Woman’s work preference (O6) | Woman’s preference in America to work outside of the home (1974–2016) | 0.390/0.391/0.363 |
Environmental and climate topics | ||
Protecting the environment (E1) | Percentage of Americans who support prioritizing policies to protect the environment (2009–2020) | 0.802/0.819/0.802 |
Stricter environmental laws (E2) | Percentage of Americans who say stricter environmental laws are ’worth the cost’ (1994–2019) | 0.802/0.819/0.802 |
Climate change issues (E3) | Percentage of Americans who support prioritizing policies to mitigate against climate change (2009–2020) | 0.803/0.939/0.836 |
