Figure 4
From: Characterizing tuberculosis transmission dynamics in high-burden urban and rural settings
Comparison of large TB outbreaks in high-burden urban and rural settings. (A) Relative probability of observing a large outbreak of at least size \(Y\) generating from a single case in a rural population compared to an urban population; (B) Absolute probability that a single case results in an outbreak of size of 30 or greater. Colored contours indicate probability bands, with associated probabilities indicated on each band. Setting-specific estimates are provided for clarity. (C) Density curves for the number of incident cases until first observed outbreak of size \(Y = 15\), \(Y = 30\), and \(Y = 50\) resulting from a single index case. Nested boxplots represent the median and interquartile range of 500 simulated surveillance systems, each with 2000 transmission chains (supplemental materials Sect. 1.8). All \(Y\) values were arbitrarily chosen to represent sufficiently large outbreaks.
