Figure 2

Receiver operating characteristics curve and performance diagram for deCNN when forecasting NAE weather regimes 10 days into the future. The dashed grey lines for (a) denote a random model (random chance), which has an AUC of 0.5. The colorbar for (a) refers to the Peirce score, defined as POD minus POFD. The dashed gray lines for (b) denotes various levels of frequency bias. A frequency bias of 1.0 is considered an unbiased model. The colorbar for (b) refers to CSI.