Table 5 Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis of the comparison groups in the discovery and validation datasets.

From: Predictive blood biomarkers of sheep pregnancy and litter size

ROC

Discovery phase

Validation phase

 

Day − 7

Day 0

Day 35

Day 50

Day 70

Day 50

CNT vs PRG

NA

NA

NA

Methanol, l-carnitine, d-glucose, l-arginine, urea

Urea, glycine

Methanol, l-carnitine, d-glucose, l-arginine, urea

NA

NA

NA

AU-ROC = 0.76

p < 0.10

AU-ROC = 0.98

p < 0.001

AU-ROC = 0.90

p < 0.05

CNT vs MLP

NA

l-Ornithine, choline

Acetone, l-ornithine, C0, total dimethylarginine

Methanol, l-carnitine, d-glucose, l-arginine, urea

Choline, urea, l-arginine, glycine

Methanol, l-carnitine, d-glucose, l-arginine, urea

NA

AU-ROC = 0.79

p < 0.05

AU-ROC = 0.73

p < 0.05

AU-ROC = 0.76

p < 0.05

AU-ROC = 0.97

p < 0.01

AU-ROC = 0.93

p < 0.001

SNG vs TRP

Choline, l-carnitine, l-phenylalanine

C4, l-threonine, trans-hydroxyproline

l-Acetylcarnitine, l-carnitine, trans-hydroxyproline

Methionine, l-carnitine

Choline, d-glucose, l-phenylalanine

Methionine, l-carnitine

AU-ROC = 0.80

p < 0.05

AU-ROC = 0.74

p < 0.05

AU-ROC = 0.76

p < 0.10

AU-ROC = 0.78

p < 0.05

AU-ROC = 0.81

p < 0.05

AU-ROC = 0.84

p < 0.001

TWN vs TRP

Hypoxanthine, l-phenylalanine, choline, l-carnitine, creatinine

Serotonin, C3

Hypoxanthine, trans-hydroxyproline, kynurenine

Isobutyric acid, l-lactic acid, l-carnitine, valine, tyrosine, methanol

Hypoxanthine, l-phenylalanine, l-carnitine, isobutyric acid

Isobutyric acid, l-lactic acid, l-carnitine, valine, tyrosine, methanol

AU-ROC = 0.77

p < 0.10

AU-ROC = 0.74

p < 0.05

AU-ROC = 0.75

p < 0.05

AU-ROC = 0.66

p < 0.10

AU-ROC = 0.77

p < 0.05

AU-ROC = 0.81

p < 0.05

  1. Candidate biomarkers were evaluated during all five timepoints of the discovery phase and day 50 of gestation was the best timepoint to reveal candidate biomarkers of ewe PLS. Therefore, biomarker analysis was pursued for only day 50 of gestation in the validation phase. The panel of metabolites that reached an area-under-the-curve (AU-ROC) of at least 0.65 or were significant (p-value < 0.05) were considered as candidate biomarkers in the discovery phase and were confirmed as biomarkers if the AU-ROC and p-value improved in the validation analysis. NS Not significant, NA biomarker not available, CNT control open ewes, PRG pregnant ewes, SNG pregnant ewes that delivered one lamb, TWN pregnant ewes that delivered two lambs, TRP pregnant ewes that delivered more than two lambs. Day − 7 refers to seven days prior to initiation of gestation and day 0 is the start of pregnancy.