Figure 4

Model results for three different scenarios. Red, green and violet solid lines are the model simulation results under scenarios 1, 2 and 3 (see text), respectively. Shaded areas on each color represent the standard deviation from 100 model runs for each scenario. Yellow dash-dot vertical line indicates the day when immunization started. Blue bars and solid orange lines are the actual daily cases and their 7 day rolling average, respectively. In scenario 1, a short vaccination immunity period implies a growth of the daily cases in the near future, if current mobility is sustained. Under scenario 2, people are expected to be immune for a longer time and breakthrough infections will act as antibodies boosters, prolonging the defence against the pandemic. In scenario 3 most people will be immune in the near future, lowering the number of cases, and a new wave would appear when vaccine immunity ends.