Table 1 Studies that passed the assessment of systematic bias (ROBOT evaluation) and additional PHAS reports (references 32,33,34 and 38 added at the end of the listing) considered in the data synthesis and secondary validation .

From: Computational models predicting the early development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden: systematic review, data synthesis, and secondary validation of accuracy

1a

Sjödin, H, Johansson A, Brännström Å, Farooq Z, Kriit HK, Wilder-Smith A, et al. COVID-19 healthcare demand and mortality in Sweden in response to non-pharmaceutical (NPIs) mitigation and suppression scenarios | medRxiv [Internet]. [citerad 01 mars 2021]. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20039594v3

1b

Sjödin H, Johansson AF, Brännström Å, Farooq Z, Kriit HK, Wilder-Smith A, et al. COVID-19 healthcare demand and mortality in Sweden in response to non-pharmaceutical mitigation and suppression scenarios. Int J Epidemiol. 01 oktober 2020;49(5):1443–53. Available from: https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/49/5/1443/5909271

4

Bryant P, Elofsson A. Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries. PeerJ [Internet]. 15 september 2020 [citerad 02 mars 2021];8. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7500353/

13a

Gardner J, Willem L, Van Der Wijngaart W, Kamerlin S, Brusselaers N, Kasson P. Intervention strategies against COVID-19 and their estimated impact on Swedish healthcare capacity | medRxiv [Internet]. [citerad 01 mars 2021]. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1

13b

Kamerlin SCL, Kasson PM. Managing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Spread With Voluntary Public Health Measures: Sweden as a Case Study for Pandemic Control. Clin Infect Dis. 15 december 2020;71(12):3174–81. Available from: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/71/12/3174/5866094

19

Hult H, Favero M. Estimates of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in Sweden. arXiv:200,513,519 [physics, q-bio] [Internet]. 25 maj 2020 [citerad 02 mars 2021]; Available from: http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.13519

30

Soubeyrand S, Ribaud M, Baudrot V, Allard D, Pommeret D, Roques L. The current COVID-19 wave will likely be mitigated in the second-line European countries. medRxiv. 22 april 2020;2020.04.17.20069179. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069179v1

35

Skattning av peakdag och antal infekterade i COVID-19-utbrottet i Stockholms län februari-april 2020 [Elektronisk resurs] [Internet]. 2020. Available from: http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/s/skattning-av-peakdag-och-antal-infekterade-i-COVID-19-utbrottet-i-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020

36

Estimates of the number of infected individuals during the COVID-19 outbreak in the Dalarna region, Skåne region, Stockholm region, and Västra Götaland region, Sweden [Elektronisk resurs] [Internet]. 2020. Available from: http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/e/estimates-of-the-number-of-infected-individuals-during-the-COVID-19-outbreak

37

Effekt av ökade kontakter och ökat resande i Sverige sommaren 2020 [Elektronisk resurs] [Internet]. 2020. Available from: http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/e/effekt-av-okade-kontakter-och-okat-resande-i-sverige-sommaren-2020

45

ECDC. Projected baselines of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK for assessing the impact of de-escalation of measures [Internet]. s. 31. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Projected-baselines-COVID-19-for-assessing-impact-measures.pdf

46

ECDC. Baseline projections of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK: update [Internet]. s. 34. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/ECDC-30-day-projections-Sept-2020.pdf

PHAS REPORTS WITH ROBOT SCORES > 3

32

Skattning av behov av slutenvårdsplatser COVID-19 (den 20 mars 2020, uppdaterad 27 mars 2020) [Internet]. 2020 mar s. 46. Available from: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/1887947af0524fd8b2c6fa71e0332a87/skattning-av-vardplatsbehov-folkhalsomyndigheten.pdf

33

Skattning av behov av slutenvårdsplatser COVID-19 (den 3 april 2020) [Internet]. 2020 apr s. 4. Available from: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/4b4dd8c7e15d48d2be744248794d1438/skattning-av-behov-av-slutenvardsplatser-covid-lombardiet.pdf

34

Skattning av behov av slutenvårdsplatser COVID-19 (den 13 maj 2020) [Internet]. 2020 maj. Available from: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/4b4dd8c7e15d48d2be744248794d1438/vardbehov-scenarier-vardbelastning-baserat-svenska-data-20200514.pdf

38

Scenarier – Tre smittspridningsscenarier inom regeringsuppdraget ”Plan inför eventuella nya utbrott av COVID-19″ [Elektronisk resurs] [Internet]. 2020. Available from: http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/s/scenarier--tre-smittspridningsscenarier-inom-regeringsuppdraget-plan-infor-eventuella-nya-utbrott-av-COVID-19

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