Table 16 Results from SAR models on COVID-19 excess mortality registered on 28 February 2021.

From: Assessing the impact of long-term exposure to nine outdoor air pollutants on COVID-19 spatial spread and related mortality in 107 Italian provinces

Mortality

NO2

O3

PM2.5

PM10

Benzene

BaP

As

Cd

Ni

50 km cut-off

Coefficient

2.8423** [1.2349]

2.3784*** [0.5507]

4.1476** [2.0834]

5.6872*** [1.9499]

10.38 [19.832]

− 38.399 [26.303]

50.115*** [16.627]

41.041 [28.385]

− 5.5223 [4.7558]

Spatial (ρ)

0.3673*** [0.0673]

0.2922*** [0.0654]

0.344*** [0.0728]

0.3239*** [0.0715]

0.3846*** [0.0679]

0.3055*** [0.0693]

0.0811 [0.082]

0.1193 [0.0841]

0.1396 [0.0848]

Pseudo R2

0.4508

0.5951

0.4968

0.4856

0.4495

0.6148

0.6254

0.5701

0.5682

75 km cut-off

Coefficient

1.8571** [0.939]

1.8935*** [0.452]

4.9649*** [1.6038]

4.4859*** [1.4086]

13.183 [15.512]

− 38.6085 [23.5874]

36.909** [15.436]

38.082 [24.76]

− 2.2329 [4.2121]

Spatial (ρ)

0.7302*** [0.0611]

0.6185*** [0.0725]

0.6337*** [0.0694]

0.7091*** [0.0629]

0.6829*** [0.0654]

0.5075*** [0.0807]

0.3208*** [0.0907]

0.3741*** [0.0871]

0.3724*** [0.089]

Pseudo R2

0.5398

0.6508

0.5584

0.5762

0.5343

0.655

0.6399

0.5834

0.5791

100 km cut-off

Coefficient

1.7917* [0.9222]

1.658*** [0.4583]

4.9938*** [1.4777]

4.302*** [1.381]

15.061 [15.806]

− 39.121* [23.595]

36.757** [14.264]

37.408 [23.304]

1.263 [4.087]

Spatial (ρ)

0.8139*** [0.0587]

0.7151*** [0.0777]

0.7696*** [0.0647]

0.796*** [0.0615]

0.7651*** [0.0695]

0.6154*** [0.0943]

0.5005*** [0.108]

0.5497*** [0.1033]

0.5613*** [0.1076]

Pseudo R2

0.5236

0.6454

0.5451

0.5747

0.5543

0.5888

0.6332

0.5569

0.5264

No cut-off

Coefficient

2.8712** [1.1623]

2.4814*** [0.4884]

6.2957*** [1.8227]

6.7678*** [1.6727]

19.24 [19.078]

− 36.032 [26.203]

46.58*** [14.277]

37.734 [25.042]

− 1.6729 [4.2456]

Spatial (ρ)

0.9495*** [0.0502]

0.9313*** [0.0675]

0.9436*** [0.0559]

0.9479*** [0.0517]

0.9441*** [0.0554]

0.8979*** [0.0993]

0.8791*** [0.116]

0.8807*** [0.1151]

0.878*** [0.118]

Pseudo R2

0.5882

0.6845

0.6242

0.6264

0.6143

0.6327

0.7009

0.6426

0.6346

  1. p-value < 0.01***; p-value < 0.05**; p-value < 0.1*. Standard errors in parentheses. All models included a constant and the following controls: dummies for regional capitals and national borders, size of the province, population aged 0–19, distance from nearest airport, share of foreigners, share of male population, population density, degree of urbanization, deaths due to LRT disease, smokers, obese individuals, large firms, altitude, and rainy days.
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