Table 3 Estimated median (and 90% credible intervals) number of detection devices and device density needed to achieve a 95% probability of declaring ship rat (Rattus rattus) eradication (given no rat detections) for various combinations of Prior and deployment time, for two monitoring devices (chew cards and WaxTags).

From: Detection parameters for managing invasive rats in urban environments

Probability of eradication

Prior

Device type

14 nights

28 nights

Device density (ha−1)

Number of devices

Device density (ha−1)

Number of devices

0.95

0.65

Chew card

3.24 (1.70–10.40)

4786 (2511–15,350)

1.62 (0.85–5.20)

2393 (1255–7675

WaxTag

3.75 (2.14–11.04)

5526 (3150–16,283)

1.87 (1.07–5.52)

2763 (1575–8142)

0.85

Chew card

2.08 (1.35–5.15)

3070 (1986–7603)

1.04 (0.67–2.58)

1535 (993–3802)

WaxTag

1.90 (1.14–5.09)

2802 (1687–7468)

0.95 (0.47–2.88)

1401 (694–4050)

  1. The number and density of devices was simulated using the web-based tool ‘JESS for Pests’ over a 1475 ha that will be targeted for ship rat eradication in Wellington city, New Zealand. Prior is the estimated probability that eradication was successful before any surveillance was carried out.