Figure 10
Barplot of the waiting time obtained with the pFFM applied to the horizontal ACAE GPS displacement, seismic count excluding swarms and strain release data. The forecast is formulated at t = 01/01/2021. The bars show the mean and the 90% confidence of the pFFM forecast. Different data are marked with different colors and labeled accordingly. Examples are based on 10-year (left), 5-year (center), and 3-year (right) time regression. Plot (a) uses a 2-year moving average, plot (b) a 6-month moving average, plot (c) a 30-day moving average.
