Figure 8

Dynamics of rates through time estimated with the Bayesian Multivariate Birth–Death model. Using the combined palaeontological and neontological data, we incorporated the effect of five environmental factors over speciation and extinction (a), and net diversification (b) for carcharhiniform species. Solid lines indicate mean posterior rates and shaded areas show 95% HPD. The contribution of each environmental variable to the dynamics of rates through time is represented by Bayesian inferences of correlation parameters on speciation (blue bars) and extinction (red bars) with the tested environmental parameters (c) and shrinkage weights (d). Highly significant correlations are represented by an asterisk and ω > 0.5 (red vertical bar). For details on the estimations of parameter correlates, see Supplementary Data S18. In panels (c) and (d), icons represent the five environmental variables, which are from top to bottom: continental fragmentation (index), oceanic productivity (δ13C in ‰), temperature (in °C), sea level (in metres), and biological reef volume (in km³). In panel (c), the upper axis refers to correlates for the continental fragmentation index, whereas the lower axis refers to all other variables, due to scale differences.