Figure 3
From: Limits on phenological response to high temperature in the Arctic
Estimated maximum temperature thresholds of tundra plants. Thresholds were estimated as the lowest AIC values when comparing generalized additive mixed models of GDDmax (calculated from 0 to 20 °C) with flower counts of the plants growing in ambient conditions observed at each location. The height of bars indicates the median estimated threshold after refitting the models omitting a single year in each iteration; error bars show range (min and max). A dark fill color indicates that the species showed a saturating phenological response to increasing temperature (where accounting for higher temperatures decreases the quality of the model) and show evidence for a maximum threshold within the range of temperatures commonly observed (see Supplemental Fig. 2 for individual fits). A light fill color indicates a lack of consistent evidence for a maximum threshold within the range of temperatures commonly observed. Below the horizontal line represents 95% of the observed hourly summer air temperatures at the location.
