Figure 2

Estimated mean cover (%) of Ecklonia radiata predicted for the (a) last glacial maximum (LGM) based on reconstructed mean annual sea surface temperature data from Barrows and Juggins³⁰, and (b) present-day based on a 25-year average of mean annual sea surface temperature encompassing the period 1996–2020. Panel (c) displays the latitudinal average of estimated mean E. radiata cover at the LGM (blue data) and present-day (black data) within the maximum range of depths (0–80 m) that kelp occurs. Spatial predictions of mean E. radiata cover presented in panels (a,b) extend across the full continental shelf (i.e. 0–200 m depth range) to aid visual interpretation of the latitudinal trends presented, but data shown in panel (c) reflect the estimated mean kelp cover within the maximum range of depths (0–80 m) that kelp occurs. Relative to present-day sea level, the present-day analysis (black data) encompasses the 0–80 m portion of the continental shelf, while the LGM analysis (blue data) encompasses the 120–200 m portion of the continental shelf (i.e. 0–80 m at LGM sea level).