Figure 1

Microsimulation diagnosis-treatment model. DIAG, diagnosis; L1T, L2T, and L3T are start of first-, second-, and third-line treatment, respectively; BSC, best supportive care, i.e., patients who are ineligible for L1T; Treated, patients who started at least one line of systemic treatment. Arrows indicate the possible transitions from one event to the start of a next treatment line or death. Black circles and lines denote the disease trajectory after treatment initiation. The corresponding time to event distributions were modelled as a parametric multistate statistical model (parMSSM). Gray dotted circle and lines denote the trajectory from DIAG to either start of treatment or death. Time-to-events from DIAG to L1T and from DIAG to death were not part of parMSSM.