Figure 4
Comparison of modelled and real-world progression-free survival (a) and overall survival (b) curves for patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations and treated with a first-line EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs). EGFR-TKI were gefitinib or erlotinib; C.I, confidence interval; RW, Real-world; 1L, first-line systemic treatment. *The real-world data of 52 patients diagnosed and treated between 2008 and 2014 in Santeon hospitals42. **The reconstructed (digitized) real-world overall survival (OS) data of 147 patients treated between 2015 and 2018 in Santeon hospitals. The OS data were digitized from the curve published by Cramer-van der Welle et al., 202119. Progression-free survival (PFS) data was not available. ***Modelled data was simulated assuming the hazard ratios of 0.43 and 0.36 for gefitinib and erlotinib compared to chemotherapy, respectively39, and hazard ratio of 0.82 for prognostic value of EGFR positive compared to EGFR negative40. EGFR-TKI benefit was assumed to wear out after 15 months.
