Table 1 Modelled median and mean PFS and OS in months (n = 300,000).

From: Development and validation of a decision model for the evaluation of novel lung cancer treatments in the Netherlands

Biomarker

1L Treat

n (%)

PFS

OS

Median

Mean

Median

Mean

Best-supportive carea

N/A

BSC

195,700 (65.2)

–

–

2.2

5.0

Non-personalized strategy

ALL Treated

PDCT

104,300 (34.8)

5.4

9.4

6.8

11.2

Personalized strategy

ALL Treated

–

104,300 (34.8)

11.2

55.4

13.6

57.2

Targeted therapy (TT)

ALL TT

–

14,860 (14.3)c

14.7

25.5

16.8

28.9

EGFRclassicb

EGFR-TKI

7380 (7.1)

14.4

15.9

16.2

20.3

EGFRnon-classicb

Afatinib

1060 (1.0)

14.9

16.4

16.2

18.2

ALK

Alectinib

2100 (2.0)

40.6

88.7

44.0

91.4

ROS1b

Crizotinib

1970 (1.9)

13.3

14.9

14.8

16.6

BRAFb

Dabraf & Tramet

2190 (2.1)

8.5

12.2

10.9

15.1

NTRK(1, 2, 3)b

Larotrectinib

160 (0.2)

7.6

10.2

8.8

11.7

Immunotherapy (IT) 23% long-term survivor fraction

ALL IT

–

89,430 (85.7)

10.5

60.5

12.8

61.9

PD-L1 ≥ 50%

Pembrolizumab

5670 (5.4)

10.9

62.4

13.1

63.8

Long-term

1310

218

227

218

227

Moderate

4360

7.0

12.7

8.6

14.4

PD-L1 ≥ 50%

Pembro & PDCT

17,000 (16.3)

17.1

65.1

19.3

66.5

Long-term

3940

209

219

209

219

Moderate

13,060

10.9

18.7

12.8

20.6

PD-L1 1–49%

Pembro & PDCT

66,760 (64.0)

9.3

59.1

11.5

60.5

Long-term

15,350

209

222

209

222

Moderate

51,410

6.0

10.6

7.5

12.4

Deterministic sensitivity analysis of the mixture cure distribution for IT

0% long-term survivor fraction

ALL IT

–

89,430 (85.7)

11.4

19.5

13.4

21.4

PD-L1 ≥ 50%

Pembrolizumab

5670 (5.4)

11.5

19.2

13.6

21.1

PD-L1 ≥ 50%

Pembro & PDCT

17,000 (16.3)

16.6

26.0

18.9

27.9

PD-L1 1–49%

Pembro & PDCT

66,760 (64.0)

10.4

17.9

12.3

19.8

  1. Biomarker, molecular biomarker; 1L treat, first-line systemic treatment; n, number of simulated patients; PFS, progression-free survival; OS, overall survival; BSC, best-supportive care; PDCT, platinum-based doublet chemotherapy; Dabraf & Tramet, combination of dabrafenib with trametinib; Pembro, pembrolizumab; EGFRclassic, epidermal growth factor receptor (exon 19 deletions and exon 21 L858R point mutations); EGFRnon-clasic, epidermal growth factor receptor (non-classic activating EGFR mutations, resistance mutations, and other mutations); ALK, anaplastic lymphoma kinase gene rearrangements; ROS1, genetic aberrations of ROS proto-oncogene 1; BRAF, B-Raf proto-oncogene; NTRK(1,2,3), neurotrophic receptor tyrosine kinase 1; PD-L1, high programmed death ligand 1 expression; Long-term, long-term survivors fraction; Moderate, moderate survivors fraction.
  2. aBest-supportive care group was kept constant in both strategies.
  3. bIt is assumed that first-line treatment benefits wear-out after 15 months.
  4. cPercentage within subgroups of personalized strategy were calculated out of the total number of patients treated (denominator 104,300).
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