Table 2 Predicted mean and forecast interval (95% and 99%) for the regional mean sea level (RMSL) rise at New York City and Osaka by 2050 and 2100 respectively under unrestricted or COP26 restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions; and the predicted means of the regional mean sea level (RMSL) rise at New York City and Osaka by 2050 and 2100 under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The RMSL baselines for New York City and Osaka are the respective mean values of the 20-year RMSL for the two regions from 1986 to 2005. The units of RMSL are mm.
From: Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise
Year | Unrestricted scenario | COP26 scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean (mm) | 95% Forecast interval | 99% Forecast interval | Mean (mm) | 95% Upper forecast interval | 99% Upper forecast interval | ||
New York | 2050 | 373.63 | 307.18–440.07 | 286.30–460.95 | 348.34 | 282.48–414.20 | 261.78–434.89 |
2100 | 995.85 | 865.99–1125.71 | 825.19–1166.51 | 808.25 | 715.88–900.63 | 686.85–929.66 | |
Osaka | 2050 | 393.22 | 312.77–473.67 | 287.49–498.94 | 366.93 | 286.84–447.02 | 261.68–472.19 |
2100 | 1061.39 | 935.24–1187.54 | 895.61–1227.18 | 861.65 | 763.65–959.65 | 732.86–990.44 | |
Year | SSP1-1.9 (mm) | SSP1-2.6 (mm) | SSP 2–4.5 (mm) | SSP3-7.0 (mm) | SSP4-6.0 (mm) | SSP5-8.5 (mm) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York | 2050 | 328.16 | 348.01 | 379.08 | 405.96 | 392.03 | 411.23 |
2100 | 691.30 | 772.42 | 970.29 | 1223.20 | 1065.67 | 1398.03 | |
Osaka | 2050 | 345.81 | 366.56 | 398.99 | 427.07 | 412.51 | 432.45 |
2100 | 737.11 | 823.84 | 1034.80 | 1303.12 | 1136.31 | 1488.58 |
