Table 4 Estimating the predictive ability of various analytes in identifying COVID-19 patients, regardless of disease severity status using the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) method.

From: Multivariate indicators of disease severity in COVID-19

Variable	Area	p-value	Asymptotic 95% confidence interval
Variable	Area	p-value	Lower bound	Upper bound
Combined profiles
Discriminant scores	1.000	2 × 10⁻⁶	1.000	1.000
BLR probabilities	1.000	2 × 10⁻⁶	1.000	1.000
AUC (analytes elevated in COVID-19)
Plasmablast	0.966	8.28 × 10⁻⁶	0.917	1.000
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ central memory T cells	0.946	2.00 × 10⁻⁵	0.881	1.000
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ effector memory	0.943	2.31 × 10⁻⁵	0.850	1.000
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ memory	0.939	2.66 × 10⁻⁵	0.866	1.000
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.918	6.57 × 10⁻⁵	0.812	1.000
CD38⁺ CD8⁺ transitional memory	0.916	7.04 × 10⁻⁵	0.825	1.000
CD38⁺ CD8⁺ memory	0.912	8.05 × 10⁻⁵	0.819	1.000
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ transitional memory	0.904	1.12 × 10⁻⁴	0.808	1.000
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ circulating T-follicular helper	0.894	1.66 × 10⁻⁴	0.796	0.992
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD4⁺ memory	0.889	2.01 × 10⁻⁴	0.786	0.992
CD38⁺ CD8⁺ effector memory	0.887	2.14 × 10⁻⁴	0.780	0.995
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD4⁺ central memory	0.879	2.93 × 10⁻⁴	0.772	0.985
CD27⁺ CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.872	3.76 × 10⁻⁴	0.751	0.993
CD38⁺ CD4 + transitional memory	0.855	6.84 × 10⁻⁴	0.700	1.000
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD4⁺ effector memory	0.855	6.84 × 10⁻⁴	0.722	0.988
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD4⁺ transitional memory	0.854	7.26 × 10⁻⁴	0.732	0.975
CD38⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.845	9.70 × 10⁻⁴	0.717	0.973
CD21⁻ CD27⁻ CD38^lo B cells	0.838	1.22 × 10⁻³	0.696	0.981
CD38⁺ CD8⁺ MAIT	0.830	1.61 × 10⁻³	0.701	0.959
CD27⁻ CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.825	1.90 × 10⁻³	0.692	0.957
CD38⁺ CD4⁺ effector memory	0.825	1.90 × 10⁻³	0.677	0.973
Neutrophils	0.825	1.90 × 10⁻³	0.692	0.958
CD27⁺ CD38⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.822	2.11 × 10⁻³	0.684	0.959
Eosinophils	0.813	2.76 × 10⁻³	0.679	0.947
CD38⁺ CD8⁺ central memory	0.808	3.23 × 10⁻³	0.638	0.978
PD1⁺ CD8⁺ transitional memory	0.808	3.23 × 10⁻³	0.673	0.943
HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ memory	0.801	3.97 × 10⁻³	0.662	0.940
HLA-DR⁺ circulating T-follicular helper	0.801	3.97 × 10⁻³	0.660	0.943
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ MAIT	0.800	4.17 × 10⁻³	0.660	0.939
HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ effector memory	0.795	4.86 × 10⁻³	0.655	0.934
CD38⁺ CD4 + memory	0.793	5.11 × 10⁻³	0.616	0.970
HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ MAIT	0.791	5.37 × 10⁻³	0.651	0.931
CD27⁻ CD38⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.774	8.71 × 10⁻³	0.626	0.923
CD27⁻HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.771	9.57 × 10⁻³	0.624	0.918
CD27⁻ HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.768	1.05 × 10⁻²	0.617	0.918
PD1⁺ CD4⁺ effector memory	0.758	1.38 × 10⁻²	0.606	0.909
CD25⁺ CD8⁺ memory	0.756	1.44 × 10⁻²	0.600	0.912
HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ transitional memory	0.747	1.80 × 10⁻²	0.594	0.901
PD1⁺ CD4⁺ transitional memory	0.747	1.80 × 10⁻²	0.595	0.900
PD1⁺ CD4⁺ memory	0.746	1.88 × 10⁻²	0.591	0.900
CD25⁺ CD8⁺ central memory	0.744	1.96 × 10⁻²	0.582	0.906
HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ central memory	0.734	2.53 × 10⁻²	0.570	0.898
CD25⁺ CD8⁺ effector memory	0.734	2.53 × 10⁻²	0.569	0.899
CD25⁺ CD8⁺ transitional memory	0.734	2.53 × 10⁻²	0.566	0.902
CD27⁺ HLA-DR⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.729	2.86 × 10⁻²	0.567	0.891
HLA-DR⁺ CD4⁺ memory	0.714	4.10 × 10⁻²	0.548	0.880
CD38⁺ CD4⁺ central memory	0.704	5.15 × 10⁻²	0.502	0.906
HLA-DR⁺ CD4⁺ central memory	0.704	5.15 × 10⁻²	0.536	0.872
CD27⁻ CD8⁺ T cells	0.700	5.55 × 10⁻²	0.528	0.873
Immature granulocyte	0.699	5.76 × 10⁻²	0.532	0.865
CD69⁺ CD8⁺ MAIT	0.697	5.97 × 10⁻²	0.528	0.865
PD1⁺ CD8⁺ MAIT	0.690	6.90 × 10⁻²	0.504	0.876
PD1⁺ CD4 + central memory	0.684	7.94 × 10⁻²	0.514	0.853
CD21⁻ CD27⁺ CD38^lo B cells	0.675	9.42 × 10⁻²	0.494	0.856
HLA-DR⁺ CD4 + effector memory	0.668	1.08 × 10⁻¹	0.478	0.859
CD27⁻ CD8⁺ CD45RA effector memory	0.667	1.11 × 10⁻¹	0.495	0.839
Monocytes	0.657	1.34 × 10⁻¹	0.427	0.886
CD25⁺ CD27⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.646	1.61 × 10⁻¹	0.453	0.840
Classical monocytes	0.645	1.66 × 10⁻¹	0.426	0.864
Intermediate monocytes	0.645	1.66 × 10⁻¹	0.439	0.850
CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.643	1.71 × 10⁻¹	0.453	0.833
PD1⁺ CD8⁺ central memory	0.641	1.76 × 10⁻¹	0.451	0.832
PD1⁺ CD8⁺ memory	0.636	1.92 × 10⁻¹	0.455	0.818
Ki67⁺ CD8⁺ memory	0.633	2.04 × 10⁻¹	0.446	0.820
CXCR5⁺ CD4⁺ transitional memory	0.626	2.27 × 10⁻¹	0.429	0.824
HLA-DR⁺ CD4⁺ transitional memory	0.626	2.27 × 10⁻¹	0.442	0.810
CD25⁺ NK cells	0.625	2.34 × 10⁻¹	0.438	0.811
Plasmacytoid dendritic cells DC HLA-DR MFI	0.618	2.60 × 10⁻¹	0.386	0.850
Ki67⁺ CD8⁺ central memory	0.616	2.67 × 10⁻¹	0.434	0.798
Intermediate monocytes/monocytes	0.606	3.11 × 10⁻¹	0.412	0.800
Ki67⁺ CD8⁺ effector memory	0.604	3.18 × 10⁻¹	0.417	0.791
CD4⁺ central memory	0.593	3.76 × 10⁻¹	0.403	0.782
CXCR5⁺ CD8⁺ effector memory	0.588	4.03 × 10⁻¹	0.409	0.766
CD69⁺ CD4⁺ memory	0.584	4.21 × 10⁻¹	0.390	0.778
CD25⁺CD27⁻ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.572	4.89 × 10⁻¹	0.383	0.762
CD4⁺ Tregs	0.569	5.09 × 10⁻¹	0.390	0.748
CD27⁺ CD8⁺ T cells	0.559	5.73 × 10⁻¹	0.369	0.749
CD69⁺ CD4⁺ effector memory	0.556	5.95 × 10⁻¹	0.369	0.743
Ki67⁺ CD4⁺ memory	0.551	6.29 × 10⁻¹	0.364	0.737
Ki67⁺ CD21⁻ CD27⁻ B cells	0.547	6.52 × 10⁻¹	0.325	0.769
CD27⁻CXCR5⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.542	6.87 × 10⁻¹	0.340	0.744
PD1⁺ CD8⁺ effector memory	0.542	6.87 × 10⁻¹	0.342	0.742
CD4⁺ transitional memory	0.539	7.11 × 10⁻¹	0.339	0.739
Non-classical monocytes	0.539	7.11 × 10⁻¹	0.310	0.768
CXCR5⁺ CD4⁺ effector memory	0.537	7.23 × 10⁻¹	0.340	0.734
CD25⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.537	7.23 × 10⁻¹	0.341	0.733
PD1⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.535	7.35 × 10⁻¹	0.340	0.730
Ki67⁺ CD4⁺ effector memory	0.525	8.09 × 10⁻¹	0.330	0.720
CD4⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.525	8.09 × 10⁻¹	0.333	0.717
Circulating T-follicular helper	0.525	8.09 × 10⁻¹	0.328	0.722
CD27⁺ NK cells	0.522	8.34 × 10⁻¹	0.331	0.712
Ki67⁺ CD8⁺ transitional memory	0.520	8.47 × 10⁻¹	0.335	0.705
CD69⁺ CD4⁺ transitional memory	0.515	8.85 × 10⁻¹	0.324	0.706
CD27⁺ Ki67⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.515	8.85 × 10⁻¹	0.323	0.707
CD25⁺ CD8⁺ MAIT	0.515	8.85 × 10⁻¹	0.334	0.697
CD27⁺CD69⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.508	9.36 × 10⁻¹	0.330	0.686
CD27⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.508	9.36 × 10⁻¹	0.305	0.712
Ki67⁺ CD8⁺ MAIT	0.505	9.61 × 10⁻¹	0.325	0.685
CXCR5⁺ CD8⁺ transitional memory	0.503	9.74 × 10⁻¹	0.309	0.697
CD27⁻Ki67⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.503	9.74 × 10⁻¹	0.309	0.698
Eosinophils CD15 MFI	0.502	9.87 × 10⁻¹	0.296	0.707
CD4⁺ effector memory	0.502	9.87 × 10⁻¹	0.307	0.697
Classical monocytes/monocytes	0.502	9.87 × 10⁻¹	0.283	0.720
CD8⁺ central memory	0.500	1.00	0.290	0.710
AUC (analytes decreased in COVID-19)
MAIT	0.993	2.41 × 10⁻⁶	0.976	1.000
NK cells	0.931	3.79 × 10⁻⁵	0.854	1.000
CD56^dim CD16⁺ NK cells	0.926	4.67 × 10⁻⁵	0.839	1.000
CD8⁺ T cells	0.909	9.20 × 10⁻⁵	0.818	1.000
Neutrophil CD16 MFI	0.902	1.20 × 10⁻⁴	0.797	1.000
T cells	0.902	1.20 × 10⁻⁴	0.803	1.000
Innate lymphoid cells	0.879	2.93 × 10⁻⁴	0.771	0.987
NK cells CD16 MFI	0.845	9.70 × 10⁻⁴	0.718	0.972
CD4⁺ T cells	0.842	1.09 × 10⁻³	0.714	0.969
B cells	0.842	1.09 × 10⁻³	0.709	0.974
CD21⁺ CD27⁺ CD38^lo B cells	0.842	1.09 × 10⁻³	0.717	0.966
CD56^hi CD16⁻ NK cells	0.816	2.48 × 10⁻³	0.682	0.951
CD38⁺ NK cells	0.778	7.92 × 10⁻³	0.617	0.939
CD8⁺ transitional memory	0.729	2.86 × 10⁻²	0.561	0.897
Neutrophils CD15 MFI	0.727	2.98 × 10⁻²	0.555	0.899
CD21⁺ CD27⁻ CD38^lo B cells	0.721	3.50 × 10⁻²	0.552	0.889
CD69⁺ CD8 + transitional memory	0.717	3.79 × 10⁻²	0.556	0.879
Plasmacytoid dendritic cells	0.712	4.26 × 10⁻²	0.528	0.896
Conventional dendritic cells	0.710	4.43 × 10⁻²	0.518	0.903
PD1⁺ NK cells	0.704	5.15 × 10⁻²	0.533	0.874
Ki67⁺ NK cells	0.684	7.94 × 10⁻²	0.484	0.883
Monocyte CD16 MFI	0.684	7.94 × 10⁻²	0.476	0.891
Monocyte CD14 MFI	0.684	7.94 × 10⁻²	0.476	0.891
Monocyte HLA-DR MFI	0.673	9.74 × 10⁻²	0.446	0.901
CD16⁺ NK cells	0.665	1.15 × 10⁻¹	0.486	0.844
CD21⁻ CD27⁺ Ki67⁺ B cells	0.662	1.22 × 10⁻¹	0.463	0.860
CD69⁺ CD8⁺ central memory	0.660	1.26 × 10⁻¹	0.488	0.832
Non-classical monocytes/monocytes	0.658	1.30 × 10⁻¹	0.479	0.837
CD38⁺ HLA-DR⁺ NK cells	0.652	1.48 × 10⁻¹	0.436	0.867
CXCR5⁺ CD8⁺ central memory	0.646	1.61 × 10⁻¹	0.452	0.841
Naïve CD4⁺ T cells	0.618	2.60 × 10⁻¹	0.423	0.813
CD69⁺ CD8⁺ effector memory	0.616	2.67 × 10⁻¹	0.437	0.795
Dendritic cells	0.614	2.74 × 10⁻¹	0.413	0.816
CD21⁺ CD27⁺ Ki67⁺ B cells	0.606	3.11 × 10⁻¹	0.400	0.812
CD16⁺ monocytes	0.603	3.26 × 10⁻¹	0.387	0.818
CD38⁺ NK cells	0.599	3.42 × 10⁻¹	0.361	0.838
CD16⁺ immature granulocyte	0.599	3.42 × 10⁻¹	0.416	0.783
HLA-DR⁺ NK cells	0.599	3.42 × 10⁻¹	0.398	0.801
Dendritic cell HLA-DR MFI	0.596	3.59 × 10⁻¹	0.339	0.853
CD21⁺ CD27⁻ Ki67⁺ B cells	0.586	4.12 × 10⁻¹	0.365	0.806
CD11c⁺ immature granulocyte	0.586	4.12 × 10⁻¹	0.394	0.778
Naïve CD8⁺ T cells	0.582	4.30 × 10⁻¹	0.387	0.778
CD69⁺ CD8⁺ memory	0.579	4.49 × 10⁻¹	0.401	0.757
CXCR5⁺ CD8⁺ MAIT	0.579	4.49 × 10⁻¹	0.400	0.758
Ki67⁺ immature granulocyte	0.574	4.79 × 10⁻¹	0.392	0.757
CD8⁺ effector memory	0.572	4.89 × 10⁻¹	0.374	0.771
CXCR5⁺ CD4⁺ central memory	0.571	4.99 × 10⁻¹	0.369	0.773
CXCR5⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.567	5.20 × 10⁻¹	0.358	0.777
Conventional dendritic cell HLA-DR MFI	0.564	5.41 × 10⁻¹	0.327	0.801
CD123⁺ immature granulocyte	0.559	5.73 × 10⁻¹	0.371	0.747
CXCR5⁺ CD4⁺ memory	0.554	6.07 × 10⁻¹	0.358	0.750
CD161⁺ monocytes	0.551	6.29 × 10⁻¹	0.329	0.772
CD69⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.544	6.76 × 10⁻¹	0.363	0.724
CD27⁺CXCR5⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.542	6.87 × 10⁻¹	0.342	0.742
Ki67⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.532	7.60 × 10⁻¹	0.345	0.719
CD27⁻ CD69⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.530	7.72 × 10⁻¹	0.339	0.722
Ki67⁺ neutrophils	0.529	7.84 × 10⁻¹	0.331	0.727
CXCR5⁺ CD8⁺ T cells	0.525	8.09 × 10⁻¹	0.323	0.727
CXCR5⁺ CD8⁺ memory	0.525	8.09 × 10⁻¹	0.329	0.722
Immature granulocyte CD16 MFI	0.515	8.85 × 10⁻¹	0.313	0.717
Ki67⁺ CD4⁺ transitional memory	0.515	8.85 × 10⁻¹	0.328	0.702
CD27⁻ PD1⁺ CD8⁺ CD45RA⁺ effector memory	0.512	9.10 × 10⁻¹	0.311	0.712
CD38⁺ CD161⁺ NK cells	0.512	9.10 × 10⁻¹	0.287	0.737
HLA-DR⁺ neutrophils	0.510	9.23 × 10⁻¹	0.324	0.696
CD69⁺ CD4⁺ central memory	0.510	9.23 × 10⁻¹	0.321	0.699
Ki67⁺ CD4⁺ central memory	0.510	9.23 × 10⁻¹	0.320	0.700
B cells HLA-DR MFI	0.502	9.87 × 10⁻¹	0.249	0.755

BLR binary logistic regression probabilities.
Shown p-values are corrected for multiple testing using Holm method. Cell populations are expressed as percentages of their respective parent populations except for where mean fluorescence intensity (MFI) is indicated.

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Table 4 Estimating the predictive ability of various analytes in identifying COVID-19 patients, regardless of disease severity status using the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) method.

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